Related papers: Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to future …
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…
This work investigates climate--projections over a transitional region between dry and wet climates, the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR GCMs…
This study investigates the synoptic circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in southeastern (SE) Europe. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data we report on the typical patterns that characterize the middle and upper…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
The relationship between global warming and extreme rainfalls in Taiwan was examined in this study. Taiwan rainfall data from TCCIP, a project led by MOST, were analyzed. North Hemisphere reference temperature data from NCEI led by NOAA.…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…
Precipitation trends can arise from both dynamic factors (changes in atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic factors (changes in atmospheric moisture content). Disentangling these contributions can aid in understanding regional climate…
In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models…
Modeling extremes of climate variables in the framework of climate change is a particularly difficult task, since it implies taking into account spatio-temporal nonstationarities. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
The approaches, based on the negative binomial model for the distribution of duration of the wet periods measured in days, are proposed to the definition of extreme precipitation. This model demonstrates excellent fit with real data and…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these…