Related papers: Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to future …
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Extreme rainfall over the Indian monsoon region poses severe societal and infrastructural risks but remains difficult to predict at daily time scales due to stochastic convective triggering and multiscale atmospheric interactions. While…
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…
Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate-model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that mid-tropospheric…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Aiming to estimate extreme precipitation forecast quantiles, we propose a nonparametric regression model that features a constant extreme value index. Using local linear quantile regression and an extrapolation technique from extreme value…
As climate change drives an increase in global extremes, it is critical for Bangladesh, a nation highly vulnerable to these impacts, to assess future risks for effective adaptation and mitigation planning. Downscaling coarse-resolution…
The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
In Bangladesh, a nation vulnerable to climate change, accurately quantifying the risk of extreme weather events is crucial for planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Downscaling coarse climate model projections to finer…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
We consider daily rainfall observations at 32 stations in the province of North Holland (the Netherlands) during 30 years. Let $T$ be the total rainfall in this area on one day. An important question is: what is the amount of rainfall $T$…
Europe was hit by several, disastrous heat and drought events in recent summers. Besides thermodynamic influences, such hot and dry extremes are driven by certain atmospheric situations including anticyclonic conditions. Effects of climate…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
For modeling extreme rainfall, the widely used Brown-Resnick max-stable model extends the concept of the variogram to suit bloc maxima, allowing the explicit modeling of the extremal dependence shown by the spatial data. This extremal…