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In this expository paper we illustrate the generality of game theoretic probability protocols of Shafer and Vovk (2001) in finite-horizon discrete games. By restricting ourselves to finite-horizon discrete games, we can explicitly describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Akimichi Takemura , Taiji Suzuki

Proper scoring rules elicit truth-telling when making predictions, or otherwise revealing information. However, when multiple predictions are made of the same event, telling the truth is in general no longer optimal, as agents are motivated…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-04 Amir Ban

We use a simple N-player stochastic game with idiosyncratic and common noises to introduce the concept of Master Equation originally proposed by Lions in his lectures at the Coll\`ege de France. Controlling the limit N tends to the infinity…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-30 René Carmona , Francois Delarue

Language emergence and evolution has recently gained growing attention through multi-agent models and mathematical frameworks to study their behavior. Here we investigate further the Naming Game, a model able to account for the emergence of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-07-21 Andrea Baronchelli , Vittorio Loreto , Luc Steels

This paper models games where the strategies are nodes of a graph G (we denote them as G-games) and in presence of coalition structures. The cases of one-shot and repeated games are presented. In the latter situation, coalitions are assumed…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

We study security threats to Markov games due to information asymmetry and misinformation. We consider an attacker player who can spread misinformation about its reward function to influence the robust victim player's behavior. Given a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-26 Jeremy McMahan , Young Wu , Yudong Chen , Xiaojin Zhu , Qiaomin Xie

We introduce a mixed {\em generalized} Dynkin game/stochastic control with ${\cal E}^f$-expectation in a Markovian framework. We study both the case when the terminal reward function is supposed to be Borelian only and when it is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-07-21 Roxana Dumitrescu , Marie-Claire Quenez , Agnès Sulem

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…

In Markov games, playing against non-stationary opponents with learning ability is still challenging for reinforcement learning (RL) agents, because the opponents can evolve their policies concurrently. This increases the complexity of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-27 Hao Chen , Chang Wang , Jian Huang , Jianxing Gong

The dishonest casino is a well-known hidden Markov model (HMM) often used in education to introduce HMMs and graphical models. A sequence of die rolls is observed with the casino switching between a fair and a loaded die. Instead of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Martin Haugh , Raghav Singal

We study a two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game with asymmetric information where the payoff depends on a controlled continuous-time Markov chain X with finite state space which is only observed by player 1. This model was…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-26 Fabien Gensbittel

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Tze Leung Lai , Shulamith T. Gross , David Bo Shen

We provide a compositional coalgebraic semantics for strategic games. In our framework, like in the semantics of functional programming languages, coalgebras represent the observable behaviour of systems derived from the behaviour of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-12-25 Achim Blumensath , Viktor Winschel

Evolutionary game theory is a common framework to study the evolution of cooperation, where it is usually assumed that the same game is played in all interactions. Here, we investigate a model where the game that is played by two…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-21 Marco A. Amaral , Jafferson K. L. da Silva , Lucas Wardil

Assignment games represent a tractable yet versatile model of two-sided markets with transfers. We study the likely properties of the core of randomly generated assignment games. If the joint productivities of every firm and worker are…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-25 Avinatan Hassidim , Assaf Romm

Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-18 Son L. Nguyen , George Yin , Tuan A. Hoang

The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-23 Andreas Heuer

We consider a class of nonlocal games that are related to binary constraint systems (BCSs) in a manner similar to the games implicit in the work of Mermin [N.D. Mermin, "Simple unified form for the major no-hidden-variables theorems," Phys.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-10-17 Richard Cleve , Rajat Mittal

We study bargaining games between suppliers and manufacturers in a network context. Agents wish to enter into contracts in order to generate surplus which then must be divided among the participants. Potential contracts and their surplus…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-14 MohammadHossein Bateni , MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Nicole Immorlica , Hamid Mahini

We consider a game in which two separate laboratories collaborate to prepare a quantum system and are then asked to guess the outcome of a measurement performed by a third party in a random basis on that system. Intuitively, by the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-10-04 Marco Tomamichel , Serge Fehr , Jędrzej Kaniewski , Stephanie Wehner