Related papers: Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted?
Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…
The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
The duration of activity growths in solar cycles is on average shorter than the duration of its declines. This asymmetry can result from fluctuations in dynamo parameters. A solar dynamo model with fluctuations in the $\alpha$-effect shows…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
The polar magnetic field of the Sun is a manifestation of certain aspects of the dynamo process and is a good precursor for predicting a sunspot cycle before its onset. Although actual synoptic measurements of this field exist only from the…
Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
Recent work has revealed an phenomenological picture of the how the $\sim$11-year sunspot cycle of Sun arises. The production and destruction of sunspots is a consequence of the latitudinal-temporal overlap and interaction of the toroidal…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically…
Recent precise observations of solar global parameters are used to calibrate an upgraded solar model which takes into account magnetic fields in the solar interior. Historical data about sunspot numbers (from 1500 to the present) and solar…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most promi- nent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we…
The solar cycle is a complex phenomenon, a comprehensive understanding of which requires the study of various tracers. Here, we consider the solar cycle as manifested in the harmonics of the solar large-scale surface magnetic field,…