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Identifying the topology underlying a set of time series is useful for tasks such as prediction, denoising, and data completion. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model-based topologies capture dependencies among time series and are often…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-30 Bakht Zaman , Luis Miguel Lopez Ramos , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Gonçalo R. A. Faria , André F. T. Martins , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Liye Jia , Fengyufan Yang , Ka Lok Man , Erick Purwanto , Sheng-Uei Guan , Jeremy Smith , Yutao Yue

Pathophysiolpgical modelling of brain systems from microscale to macroscale remains difficult in group comparisons partly because of the infeasibility of modelling the interactions of thousands of neurons at the scales involved. Here, to…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-30 Kang You , Gary Green , Jian Zhang

Several data-driven approaches based on information theory have been proposed for analyzing high-order interactions involving three or more components of a network system. Most of these methods are defined only in the time domain and rely…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-18 Yuri Antonacci , Chiara Bara' , Laura Sparacino , Gorana Mijatovic , Ludovico Minati , Luca Faes

Network estimation and variable selection have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, but only recently have those two challenges been addressed simultaneously. In this paper, we seek to develop a novel method to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Nathan Osborne , Christine B. Peterson , Marina Vannucci

Distributed systems often exhibit emergent behaviors that impact their resilience (Franz-Kaiser et al., 2020; Adilson E. Motter, 2002; Jianxi Gao, 2016). This paper presents a theoretical framework combining attributed graph models,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-19 Anatoly A. Krasnovsky

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Information theory is a powerful tool to express principles to drive autonomous systems because it is domain invariant and allows for an intuitive interpretation. This paper studies the use of the predictive information (PI), also called…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-07-19 Georg Martius , Ralf Der , Nihat Ay

We consider the formalism of information decomposition of target effects from multi-source interactions, i.e. the problem of defining redundant and synergistic components of the information that a set of source variables provides about a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-04-24 Daniele Marinazzo , Leonardo Angelini , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-16 Jonas M B Haslbeck , Laura F Bringmann , Lourens J Waldorp

Quantifying emergence and modeling emergent dynamics in a data-driven manner for complex dynamical systems is challenging due to the lack of direct observations at the micro-level. Thus, it's crucial to develop a framework to identify…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-16 Mingzhe Yang , Zhipeng Wang , Kaiwei Liu , Yingqi Rong , Bing Yuan , Jiang Zhang

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-29 Jalal Etesami , Ali Habibnia , Negar Kiyavash

Although there is a rapidly growing literature on dynamic connectivity methods, the primary focus has been on separate network estimation for each individual, which fails to leverage common patterns of information. We propose novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-15 Suprateek Kundu , Jin Ming , Joe Nocera , Keith M. McGregor

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Martina Cinquini , Isacco Beretta , Salvatore Ruggieri , Isabel Valera

In emergencies, high stake decisions often have to be made under time pressure and strain. In order to support such decisions, information from various sources needs to be collected and processed rapidly. The information available tends to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Moritz Schneider , Lukas Halekotte , Tina Comes , Daniel Lichte , Frank Fiedrich

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

We define Persistent Mutual Information (PMI) as the Mutual (Shannon) Information between the past history of a system and its evolution significantly later in the future. This quantifies how much past observations enable long term…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-03-13 R. C. Ball , M. Diakonova , R. S. MacKay

Current understanding holds that financial contagion is driven mainly by the system-wide interconnectedness of institutions. A distinction has been made between systematic and idiosyncratic channels of contagion, with shocks transmitted…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-04 Daniel Ahelegbey , Luis Carvalho , Eric Kolaczyk

Transient phenomena play a key role in coordinating brain activity at multiple scales, however,their underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. A key challenge for neural data science is thus to characterize the network interactions at…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-16 Kaidi Shao , Nikos K. Logothetis , Michel Besserve