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We investigate the optimization landscape of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the Cavender-Farris-Neyman (CFN) model, a two-state latent tree model fundamental to statistical phylogenetics and the ferromagnetic Ising model. Although…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch

Likelihood-based methods are widely considered the best approaches for reconstructing ancestral states. Although much effort has been made to study properties of these methods, previous works often assume that both the tree topology and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Lam Si Tung Ho , Edward Susko

We consider the branch-length estimation problem on a bifurcating tree: a character evolves along the edges of a binary tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process, and we seek to recover the edge transition probabilities from…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch

Reconstructing evolutionary trees from molecular sequence data is a fundamental problem in computational biology. Stochastic models of sequence evolution are closely related to spin systems that have been extensively studied in statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Sebastien Roch , Allan Sly

Diffusion processes on trees are commonly used in evolutionary biology to model the joint distribution of continuous traits, such as body mass, across species. Estimating the parameters of such processes from tip values presents challenges…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-27 Cécile Ané , Lam Si Tung Ho , Sebastien Roch

We consider the problem of inferring an ancestral state from observations at the leaves of a tree, assuming the state evolves along the tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process. We establish a general branching rate condition…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Sebastien Roch , Kun-Chieh Wang

We analyse a maximum-likelihood approach for combining phylogenetic trees into a larger `supertree'. This is based on a simple exponential model of phylogenetic error, which ensures that ML supertrees have a simple combinatorial description…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-08-17 Mike Steel , Allen Rodrigo

Sum-Product Networks with complex probability distribution at the leaves have been shown to be powerful tractable-inference probabilistic models. However, while learning the internal parameters has been amply studied, learning complex leaf…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-15 Mattia Desana , Christoph Schnörr

The problem of reconstructing evolutionary trees or phylogenies is of great interest in computational biology. A popular model for this problem assumes that we are given the set of leaves (current species) of an unknown binary tree and the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Eshwar Ram Arunachaleswaran , Anindya De , Sampath Kannan

It is common in phylogenetics to have some, perhaps partial, information about the overall evolutionary tree of a group of organisms and wish to find an evolutionary tree of a specific gene for those organisms. There may not be enough…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-09 Vu Dinh , Lam Si Tung Ho , Marc A. Suchard , Frederick A. Matsen

The evolution of aligned DNA sequence sites is generally modeled by a Markov process operating along the edges of a phylogenetic tree. It is well known that the probability distribution on the site patterns at the tips of the tree…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-10-15 Benny Chor , Mike Steel

Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in the independent-sample case, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-26 Lam Si Tung Ho , Vu Dinh , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard

A Brownian motion tree (BMT) model is a Gaussian model whose associated set of covariance matrices is linearly constrained according to common ancestry in a phylogenetic tree. We study the complexity of inferring the maximum likelihood (ML)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Jane Ivy Coons , Shelby Cox , Aida Maraj , Ikenna Nometa

We apply the theory of markov random fields on trees to derive a phase transition in the number of samples needed in order to reconstruct phylogenies. We consider the Cavender-Farris-Neyman model of evolution on trees, where all the inner…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Elchanan Mossel

Ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is a method that simultaneously reconstructs a phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequences from extant data (sequences at the leaves). The tree and ancestral sequences maximize the probability of observing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-24 Elchanan Mossel , Sebastien Roch , Mike Steel

Consider an information source generating a symbol at the root of a tree network whose links correspond to noisy communication channels, and broadcasting it through the network. We study the problem of reconstructing the transmitted symbol…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Marc Mezard , Andrea Montanari

A central task in the study of molecular sequence data from present-day species is the reconstruction of the ancestral relationships. The most established approach to tree reconstruction is the maximum likelihood (ML) method. In this…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Asger Hobolth , Ruriko Yoshida

A major task of evolutionary biology is the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular data. The evolutionary model is given by a Markov chain on a tree. Given samples from the leaves of the Markov chain, the goal is to reconstruct…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-30 Constantinos Daskalakis , Elchanan Mossel , Sebastien Roch

The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Frederic Koehler , Elchanan Mossel

Motivated by the theory of spin-glasses in physics, we study the so-called reconstruction problem for the related distributions on the tree, and on the sparse random graph $G(n,d/n)$. Both cases, reduce naturally to studying broadcasting…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Charilaos Efthymiou , Kostas Zampetakis
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