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Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to…

Causal discovery aims to recover information about an unobserved causal graph from the observable data it generates. Layerings are orderings of the variables which place causes before effects. In this paper, we provide ways to recover…

Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and…

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that…

Causal discovery problems use a set of observations to deduce causality between variables in the real world, typically to answer questions about biological or physical systems. These observations are often recorded at regular time…

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

In this paper, we analyze the applicability of the Causal Identification algorithm to causal time series graphs with latent confounders. Since these graphs extend over infinitely many time steps, deciding whether causal effects across…

As cyber-physical systems grow increasingly interconnected and spatially distributed, ensuring their resilience against evolving cyberattacks has become a critical priority. Spatio-Temporal Anomaly detection plays an important role in…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

On time-series data, most causal discovery methods fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information which is lost when following this approach.…

We provide a unified operational framework for the study of causality, non-locality and contextuality, in a fully device-independent and theory-independent setting. We define causaltopes, our chosen portmanteau of "causal polytopes", for…

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic,…

Causal discovery outputs a causal structure, represented by a graph, from observed data. For time series data, there is a variety of methods, however, it is difficult to evaluate these on real data as realistic use cases very rarely come…

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple…

Entropic causal inference is a recent framework for learning the causal graph between two variables from observational data by finding the information-theoretically simplest structural explanation of the data, i.e., the model with smallest…

Heteroscedasticity -- where the variance of a variable changes with other variables -- is pervasive in real data, and elucidating why it arises from the perspective of statistical moments is crucial in scientific knowledge discovery and…

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We…