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Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Brain networks typically exhibit characteristic synchronization patterns where several synchronized clusters coexist. On the other hand, neurological disorders are considered to be related to pathological synchronization such as excessive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-31 Ryota Kokubo , Rui Kato , Hideaki Ishii

Many real-world systems are often regarded as weakly coupled limit-cycle oscillators, in which each oscillator corresponds to a dynamical system with many degrees of freedom that have collective oscillations. One of the most practical…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-11-21 Takahiro Arai , Yoji Kawamura , Toshio Aoyagi

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

In this paper, we address the fusion problem in wireless sensor networks, where the cross-correlation between the estimates is unknown. To solve the problem within the Bayesian framework, we assume that the covariance matrix has a prior…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-09-14 Zhiyuan Weng , Petar Djuric

Synchronisation of coupled oscillators is a ubiquitous phenomenon, occurring in topics ranging from biology and physics, to social networks and technology. A fundamental and long-time goal in the study of synchronisation has been to find…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2018-07-25 Edward J. Hancock , Georg A. Gottwald

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-13 Oliver Dürr , Po-Yu Fan , Zong-Xian Yin

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-12 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Inés P. Mariño , Joaquín Míguez

This paper develops a Bayesian network-based method for the calibration of multi-physics models, integrating various sources of uncertainty with information from computational models and experimental data. We adopt the Kennedy and O'Hagan…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-06-25 You Ling , Joshua Mullins , Sankaran Mahadevan

The dynamics of large systems of coupled oscillators is a subject of increasing importance with prominent applications in several areas such as physics and biology. The Kuramoto model, where a set of oscillators move around a circle…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2021-11-24 Ana Elisa D. Barioni , Marcus A. M. de Aguiar

Super-critical Kuramoto oscillators with distributed frequencies separate into two disjoint groups: an ordered one locked to the mean field, and a disordered one consisting of effectively decoupled oscillators -- at least so in the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2019-09-18 F. Peter , C. Gong , A. Pikovsky

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 024101, 2012) introduced a method based on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-14 Andrea Duggento , Tomislav Stankovski , Peter V. E. McClintock , Aneta Stefanovska

The paper introduces a Bayesian estimation method for quantile regression in univariate ordinal models. Two algorithms are presented that utilize the latent variable inferential framework of Albert and Chib (1993) and the normal-exponential…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-30 Mohammad Arshad Rahman

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

We present a systematic analysis of dynamic scaling in the time evolution of the phase order parameter for coupled oscillators with non-identical natural frequencies in terms of the Kuramoto model. This provides a comprehensive view of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-09-23 Chulho Choi , Meesoon Ha , Byungnam Kahng

We present a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology with quantified uncertainty. Such models capture the dynamics of the electrical signal that coordinates the muscle cell…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Maarten Volkaerts , Marie Cloet , Hans Dierckx , Piet Claus , Giovanni Samaey

The Kuramoto model with higher-order interactions has recently been shown to exhibit bistability, explosive synchronization transitions, and rich collective dynamics. Existing analytical approaches, however, typically rely on all-to-all…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2026-05-26 Chanin Kumpeerakij , Juan G. Restrepo

In the design of clinical trials, it is essential to assess the design operating characteristics (e.g., power and the type I error rate). Common practice for the evaluation of operating characteristics in Bayesian clinical trials relies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Luke Hagar , Shirin Golchi

An efficient algorithm is proposed for Bayesian model calibration, which is commonly used to estimate the model parameters of non-linear, computationally expensive models using measurement data. The approach is based on Bayesian statistics:…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-11-06 L. M. M. van den Bos , B. Sanderse , W. A. A. M. Bierbooms , G. J. W. van Bussel

The effect of phase-lag parameter in pairwise interactions has been a topic of great interest for long. However, real-world systems often have interactions that are beyond pairwise and can be modeled using simplicial complexes. We…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2024-02-02 Bhuwan Moyal , Priyanka Rajwani , Subhasanket Dutta , Sarika Jalan