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In two-stage electricity markets, renewable power producers enter the day-ahead market with a forecast of future power generation and then reconcile any forecast deviation in the real-time market at a penalty. The choice of the forecast…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-15 Vladimir Dvorkin

Intra-day price variations in financial markets are driven by the sequence of orders, called the order flow, that is submitted at high frequency by traders. This paper introduces a novel application of the Sequence Generative Adversarial…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-29 Ye-Sheen Lim , Denise Gorse

For a timely decarbonization of our economy, power systems need to accommodate increasing numbers of clean but stochastic resources. This requires new operational methods that internalize this stochasticity to ensure safety and efficiency.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-02 Robert Mieth , H. Vincent Poor

A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2009-05-15 Randall A. LaViolette , Lory A. Ellebracht , Kevin L. Stamber , Charles J. Gieseler , Benjamin K. Cook

The participation of electric vehicle (EV) aggregators in real-time electricity markets offers promising revenue opportunities through price-responsive energy arbitrage. A central challenge in economic bidding lies in quantifying the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Zhen Zhu , Hongcai Zhang , Yonghua Song

Renewable energy is essential for energy security and global warming mitigation. However, power generation from renewable energy sources is uncertain due to volatile weather conditions and complex equipment operations. To improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yuchen Shi , Nan Chen

This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Yvet Renkema , Nico Brinkel , Tarek Alskaif

This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-30 Naser Rostamni , Tarik A. Rashid

In this paper, a multivariate constrained robust M-regression (MCRM) method is developed to estimate shaping coefficients for electricity forward prices. An important benefit of the new method is that model arbitrage can be ruled out at an…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-27 Peter Leoni , Pieter Segaert , Sven Serneels , Tim Verdonck

This paper presents a new hybrid model for predicting German electricity prices. The algorithm is based on a combination of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Although GPR is a competent model for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Abhinav Das , Stephan Schlüter , Lorenz Schneider

In order to reach the supply/demand balance, electricity providers need to predict the demand and production of electricity at different time scales. This implies the need of modeling weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, solar…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-24 Augustin Touron

Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical for strategic decision-making in deregulated electricity markets, where volatility stems from complex supply-demand dynamics and external factors. Traditional point forecasts often fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Abhinav Das , Stephan Schlüter

Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting has significant practical implications for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. This study focuses on enhancing…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Joseph Nyangon , Ruth Akintunde

The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Kyri Baker

In this paper, we solve the multiple product price optimization problem under interval uncertainties of the price sensitivity parameters in the demand function. The objective of the price optimization problem is to maximize the overall…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Mahdi Hamzeei , Alvin Lim , Jiefeng Xu

We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-27 René Aïd , Pierre Gruet , Huyên Pham

The participants of the electricity market concern very much the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecast. SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecast. Two…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 C. Gao , E. Bompard , R. Napoli , Q. Wan

A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 J. Doyne Farmer , Shareen Joshi

The electricity industry has been one of the first to face technological changes motivated by sustainability concerns. Whilst efficiency aspects of market design have tended to focus upon market power concerns, the new policy challenges…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-06 Lamia Varawala , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh , György Dán , Derek Bunn , Juan Rosellón

Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-30 Weronika Nitka , Rafał Weron