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Prediction markets are a popular, prominent, and successful structure for a collective intelligence platform. However the exact mechanism by which information known to the participating traders is incorporated into the market price is…
Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…
Since exchange economy considerably varies in the market assets, asset prices have become an attractive research area for investigating and modeling ambiguous and uncertain information in today markets. This paper proposes a new generative…
In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes.…
This paper undertakes a comprehensive investigation of electricity price forecasting methods, focused on the Irish Integrated Single Electricity Market, particularly on changes during recent periods of high volatility. The primary objective…
The manufacturing industry is under growing pressure to enhance sustainability while preserving economic competitiveness. As a result, manufacturers have been trying to determine how to integrate onsite renewable energy and real-time…
Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires specification of zones' borders. One of the approaches to identify zones is based on clustering of Locational Marginal Prices (LMP). The purpose of the paper is twofold: (i) we…
In a commodity market, revenue adequate prices refer to compensations that ensure that a market participant has a non-negative profit. In this article, we study the problem of deriving revenue adequate prices for an electricity…
We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…
Prediction markets are long known for prediction accuracy. This study systematically explores the fundamental properties of prediction markets, addressing questions about their information aggregation process and the factors contributing to…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…
Power systems operate under uncertainty originating from multiple factors that are impossible to account for deterministically. Distributional forecasting is used to control and mitigate risks associated with this uncertainty. Recent…
Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…
We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…
In electricity markets, locational marginal price (LMP) forecasting is particularly important for market participants in making reasonable bidding strategies, managing potential trading risks, and supporting efficient system planning and…
There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…
The European Power Exchange has introduced day-ahead auctions and continuous trading spot markets to facilitate the insertion of renewable electricity. These markets are designed to balance excess or lack of power in short time periods,…
This paper takes a fresh look at the economic theory that is motivation for pricing models, such as critical peak pricing (CPP), or surge pricing, and the demand response models advocated by policy makers and in the power systems…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…