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We consider the problem of binary prediction with expert advice in settings where experts have agency and seek to maximize their credibility. This paper makes three main contributions. First, it defines a model to reason formally about…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Tim Roughgarden , Okke Schrijvers

The method of defensive forecasting is applied to the problem of prediction with expert advice for binary outcomes. It turns out that defensive forecasting is not only competitive with the Aggregating Algorithm but also handles the case of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-08-13 Vladimir Vovk

We consider the problem of recovering an unknown vector from noisy data with the help of projection estimates. The goal is to find a convex combination of these estimates with the minimal risk. We study an aggregation method based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-20 Yu. Golubev

We study a variant of decision-theoretic online learning in which the set of experts that are available to Learner can shrink over time. This is a restricted version of the well-studied sleeping experts problem, itself a generalization of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Hamid Shayestehmanesh , Sajjad Azami , Nishant A. Mehta

The note presents a modified proof of a loss bound for the exponentially weighted average forecaster with time-varying potential. The regret term of the algorithm is upper-bounded by sqrt{n ln(N)} (uniformly in n), where N is the number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-11-29 Alexey Chernov

In the online learning with experts problem, an algorithm must make a prediction about an outcome on each of $T$ days (or times), given a set of $n$ experts who make predictions on each day (or time). The algorithm is given feedback on the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-03-06 David P. Woodruff , Fred Zhang , Samson Zhou

This paper studies an online optimal resource reservation problem in communication networks with job transfers where the goal is to minimize the reservation cost while maintaining the blocking cost under a certain budget limit. To tackle…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Ahmed Sid-Ali , Ioannis Lambadaris , Yiqiang Q. Zhao , Gennady Shaikhet , Amirhossein Asgharnia

Federated Learning has been recently proposed for distributed model training at the edge. The principle of this approach is to aggregate models learned on distributed clients to obtain a new more general "average" model (FedAvg). The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Adnan Ben Mansour , Gaia Carenini , Alexandre Duplessis , David Naccache

We study the problem of online learning with primary and secondary losses. For example, a recruiter making decisions of which job applicants to hire might weigh false positives and false negatives equally (the primary loss) but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Avrim Blum , Han Shao

In this paper, we initiate the study of the weighted paging problem with predictions. This continues the recent line of work in online algorithms with predictions, particularly that of Lykouris and Vassilvitski (ICML 2018) and Rohatgi (SODA…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Zhihao Jiang , Debmalya Panigrahi , Kevin Sun

Online learning with expert advice is widely used in various machine learning tasks. It considers the problem where a learner chooses one from a set of experts to take advice and make a decision. In many learning problems, experts may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Pouya M Ghari , Yanning Shen

Given a pre-trained classifier and multiple human experts, we investigate the task of online classification where model predictions are provided for free but querying humans incurs a cost. In this practical but under-explored setting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Sam Showalter , Alex Boyd , Padhraic Smyth , Mark Steyvers

The emerging field of learning-augmented online algorithms uses ML techniques to predict future input parameters and thereby improve the performance of online algorithms. Since these parameters are, in general, real-valued functions, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-26 Keerti Anand , Rong Ge , Amit Kumar , Debmalya Panigrahi

We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 Yakov Babichenko , Dan Garber

The model averaging problem is to average multiple models to achieve a prediction accuracy not much worse than that of the best single model in terms of mean squared error. It is known that if the models are misspecified, model averaging is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-28 Dong Dai , Lei Han , Ting Yang , Tong Zhang

The paper describes an application of Aggregating Algorithm to the problem of regression. It generalizes earlier results concerned with plain linear regression to kernel techniques and presents an on-line algorithm which performs nearly as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Alex Gammerman , Yuri Kalnishkan , Vladimir Vovk

We introduce the $\texttt{$k$-experts}$ problem - a generalization of the classic Prediction with Expert's Advice framework. Unlike the classic version, where the learner selects exactly one expert from a pool of $N$ experts at each round,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Samrat Mukhopadhyay , Sourav Sahoo , Abhishek Sinha

Rule learning approaches for knowledge graph completion are efficient, interpretable and competitive to purely neural models. The rule aggregation problem is concerned with finding one plausibility score for a candidate fact which was…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Patrick Betz , Stefan Lüdtke , Christian Meilicke , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-23 Rui M. Castro , Fredrik Hellström , Tim van Erven