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Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Recent developments in computational chemistry facilitate the automated quantum chemical exploration of chemical reaction networks for the in-silico prediction of synthesis pathways, yield, and selectivity. However, the underlying quantum…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-22 Marco Eckhoff , Markus Reiher

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer probability distributions for model parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification in predictions. However, they often underperform compared to deterministic neural networks. Utilizing mutual learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Cuong Pham , Cuong C. Nguyen , Trung Le , Dinh Phung , Gustavo Carneiro , Thanh-Toan Do

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) developed from extensive datasets constructed from density functional theory (DFT) calculations have become increasingly appealing for many researchers. This paper presents a framework of polynomial-based…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-09-29 Atsuto Seko

Machine learning techniques have found their way into computational chemistry as indispensable tools to accelerate atomistic simulations and materials design. In addition, machine learning approaches hold the potential to boost the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-03 Johannes Voss

Recent years have witnessed the fast development of machine learning potentials (MLPs) and their widespread applications in chemistry, physics, and material science. By fitting discrete ab initio data faithfully to continuous and…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-05-13 Junfan Xia , Yaolong Zhang , Bin Jiang

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

The usual figure of merit characterizing the performance of neural networks applied to problems in the quantum domain is their accuracy, being the probability of a correct answer on a previously unseen input. Here we append this parameter…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 Jan Wasilewski , Tomasz Paterek , Karol Horodecki

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Active learning, an iterative process of selecting the most informative data points for exploration, is crucial for efficient characterization of materials and chemicals property space. Neural networks excel at predicting these properties…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-06-02 Sarah I. Allec , Maxim Ziatdinov

In system analysis and design optimization, multiple computational models are typically available to represent a given physical system. These models can be broadly classified as high-fidelity models, which provide highly accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Ruda Zhang , Negin Alemazkoor

Laplace approximations are classic, computationally lightweight means for constructing Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). As in other approximate BNNs, one cannot necessarily expect the induced predictive uncertainty to be calibrated. Here we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

Graph neural networks for molecular property prediction are frequently underspecified by data and fail to generalise to new scaffolds at test time. A potential solution is Bayesian learning, which can capture our uncertainty in the model…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-04 George Lamb , Brooks Paige

Although deep neural network (DNN) has achieved many state-of-the-art results, estimating the uncertainty presented in the DNN model and the data is a challenging task. Problems related to uncertainty such as classifying unknown classes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-17 Buu Phan

Bringing deep neural networks (DNNs) into safety critical applications such as automated driving, medical imaging and finance, requires a thorough treatment of the model's uncertainties. Training deep neural networks is already resource…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Julian Burghoff , Robin Chan , Hanno Gottschalk , Annika Muetze , Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert

Large-scale computer simulations of chemical atoms are used in a wide range of applications, including batteries, drugs, and more. However, there is a problem with efficiency as it takes a long time due to the large amount of calculation.…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-02-28 Hyun Gyu Park , Soohaeng Yoo Willow , D. ChangMo Yang , Chang Woo Myung

Deep neural networks (DNN) are versatile parametric models utilised successfully in a diverse number of tasks and domains. However, they have limitations---particularly from their lack of robustness and over-sensitivity to out of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle