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Ozone depletion events are recurring phenomena in both polar regions, characterized by significant interannual variability. In this study, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Global Deterministic Prediction System is used to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-05 J. de Grandpre , I. Ivanova , Y. J. Rochon , C. Jouan , P. A. Vaillancourt

A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Phillip A. Jang , David S. Matteson

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-17 Rafał Kulik , Philippe Soulier

Forecasting of future snow depths is useful for many applications like road safety, winter sport activities, avalanche risk assessment and hydrology. Motivated by the lack of statistical forecasts models for snow depth, in this paper we…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-16 Hugo Lewi Hammer

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-06-27 Adriano Mazzarella , Nicola Scafetta

Temperature and rainfall have a significant impact on economic growth as well as the outbreak of seasonal diseases in a region. In spite of that inadequate studies have been carried out for analyzing the weather pattern of Bangladesh…

Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 V. Gontis , B. Kaulakys

This study investigates the synoptic circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in southeastern (SE) Europe. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data we report on the typical patterns that characterize the middle and upper…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-04-09 Georgios Fragkoulidis , Volkmar Wirth

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Sebastian Springer , Vera Melinda Galfi , Alessandro Laio , Valerio Lucarini

Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Parsa Gooya , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso

We developed Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models to predict the formation of active regions (ARs) on the solar surface. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity, and the magnetic field observations from the Solar Dynamics…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-27 Spiridon Kasapis , Irina N. Kitiashvili , Alexander G. Kosovichev , John T. Stefan

Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-09 Charles Anderson , Jason Stock

The potential of Model Predictive Control in buildings has been shown many times, being successfully used to achieve various goals, such as minimizing energy consumption or maximizing thermal comfort. However, mass deployment has thus far…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-09 Manuel Koch , Colin N. Jones

This paper develops a new stochastic volatility model for the temperature that is a natural extension of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model proposed by Benth and Benth (2007). This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-11 Aurélien Alfonsi , Nerea Vadillo

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-27 Kameron B. Kinast , Ernest Fokoué

Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-26 Ningning Tao , Xiaosong Chen , Fei Xie , Yongwen Zhang , Yan Xia , Xuan Ma , Han Huang , Hongyu Wang

Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Andreas Holm Nielsen , Alexandros Iosifidis , Henrik Karstoft

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Philine L. Bommer , Marlene Kretschmer , Fiona R. Spuler , Kirill Bykov , Marina M. -C. Höhne

The annual temperature cycle of the earth closely follows the annual cycle of solar flux. At temperate latitudes, both driving and response cycles are well described by a strong annual sinusoidal component and a non-vanishing semiannual…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-13 Yunxiang Song , Kyle B. Lawlor , Thomas A. Witten

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program is a U.S. Department of Energy project that collects meteorological observations at several locations around the world in order to study how weather processes affect global climate change. As…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-02 Joseph Guinness , Michael L. Stein