Related papers: Optimal e-value testing for properly constrained h…
We consider the problem of testing the mean of a bounded real random variable. We introduce a notion of optimal classes for e-variables and e-processes, and establish the optimality of the coin-betting formulation among e-variable-based…
E-variables are nonnegative random variables with expected value at most one under any distribution from a given null hypothesis. Every nonasymptotically valid test can be obtained by thresholding some e-variable. As such, e-variables arise…
E-values have recently emerged as a robust and flexible alternative to p-values for hypothesis testing, especially under optional continuation, i.e., when additional data from further experiments are collected. In this work, we define…
Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…
We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study…
In this paper we use e-values in the context of multiple hypothesis testing assuming that the base tests produce independent, or sequential, e-values. Our simulation and empirical studies and theoretical considerations suggest that, under…
Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
We derive the unique e-values with optimal (relative) growth rate in the worst case for testing the mean of a bounded random variable, hereby contributing with the first application beyond the assumption of mutually absolutely continuous…
Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…
A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With p-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation…
The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…
E-variables enable safe and anytime-valid inference, with log-optimal e-variables given by the likelihood ratio of the least favorable distributions (LFDs) when they exist in composite settings. While this unconstrained theory is well…
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…
E-variables are a relatively new approach for testing statistical hypotheses that has been experiencing major development during the last several years. In this paper we introduce the method of e-variable-approximability and use it to…
The e-value is swiftly rising in prominence in many applications of hypothesis testing and multiple testing, yet its relationship to classical testing theory remains elusive. We unify e-values and classical testing into a single 'continuous…
The problem of simple $M-$ary hypothesis testing under a generic performance criterion that depends on arbitrary functions of error probabilities is considered. Using results from convex analysis, it is proved that an optimal decision rule…
We consider a variant of sequential testing by betting where, at each time step, the statistician is presented with multiple data sources (arms) and obtains data by choosing one of the arms. We consider the composite global null hypothesis…
We consider the optimal value of information (VoI) problem, where the goal is to sequentially select a set of tests with a minimal cost, so that one can efficiently make the best decision based on the observed outcomes. Existing algorithms…
We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples…