On the optimality of coin-betting for mean estimation
Statistics Theory
2026-05-08 v4 Methodology
Statistics Theory
Abstract
We consider the problem of testing the mean of a bounded real random variable. We introduce a notion of optimal classes for e-variables and e-processes, and establish the optimality of the coin-betting formulation among e-variable-based algorithmic frameworks for testing and estimating the (conditional) mean. As a consequence, we provide a direct and explicit characterisation of all valid e-variables and e-processes for this testing problem. In the language of classical statistical decision theory, we fully describe the set of all admissible e-variables and e-processes, and identify the corresponding minimal complete class.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2412.02640,
title = {On the optimality of coin-betting for mean estimation},
author = {Eugenio Clerico},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.02640},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
main text: 14 pages, 1 figure