English

On the optimality of coin-betting for mean estimation

Statistics Theory 2026-05-08 v4 Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider the problem of testing the mean of a bounded real random variable. We introduce a notion of optimal classes for e-variables and e-processes, and establish the optimality of the coin-betting formulation among e-variable-based algorithmic frameworks for testing and estimating the (conditional) mean. As a consequence, we provide a direct and explicit characterisation of all valid e-variables and e-processes for this testing problem. In the language of classical statistical decision theory, we fully describe the set of all admissible e-variables and e-processes, and identify the corresponding minimal complete class.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2412.02640,
  title  = {On the optimality of coin-betting for mean estimation},
  author = {Eugenio Clerico},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.02640},
  year   = {2026}
}

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main text: 14 pages, 1 figure