Related papers: Probability and Ambiguity
We use the idea of the broken stick problem (which goes back to Poincare) and calculate the corresponding probabilities for the cases in which the three broken part are: the medians in a triangle, the altitudes, radii of excircles, angle…
The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown…
Charles L. Dodgson, also known as Lewis Carroll, in his book "Pillow problems" from 1893 asked for the likelihood of a random triangle to be obtuse. Clearly, the answer to Dodgson's question depends strongly on the assumed random…
We study chance constrained optimization problems $\min_x f(x)$ s.t. $P(\left\{ \theta: g(x,\theta)\le 0 \right\})\ge 1-\epsilon$ where $\epsilon\in (0,1)$ is the violation probability, when the distribution $P$ is not known to the decision…
Mr. Smith has two children. Given that at least one of them is a boy, how likely is it that Mr. Smith has two boys? It's a very standard puzzle in elementary books on probability theory. Whoever asks you this question hopes that you will…
Initially proposed by Martin Gardner in the 1950s, the famous two-children problem is often presented as a paradox in probability theory. A relatively recent variant of this paradox states that, while in a two-children family for which at…
Evaluating joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables, and their linear combinations, is a fundamental challenge in causal inference. This paper addresses the bounding and identification of these probabilities in…
We present a variation of the broken stick problem in which $n$ stick lengths are sampled uniformly at random. We prove that the probability that no three sticks can form a triangle is the reciprocal of the product of the first $n$…
The broken stick problem is the following classical question. You have a segment $[0,1]$. You choose two points on this segment at random. They divide the segment into three smaller segments. Show that the probability that the three…
I argue that we must distinguish between: (0) the Three-Doors-Problem Problem [sic], which is to make sense of some real world question of a real person. (1) a large number of solutions to this meta-problem, i.e., many specific…
These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…
In the article by Edward et al. \cite{Sudbury2025}, it was shown that the probability that no three sticks randomly chosen from the unit interval can form a triangle equals the reciprocal of the product of the first $n$ Fibonacci numbers.…
We apply recent ideas about complexity and randomness to the philosophy of laws and chances. We develop two ways to use algorithmic randomness to characterize probabilistic laws of nature. The first, a generative chance* law, employs a…
This celebratory article contains a personal and idiosyncratic selection of a few open problems in discrete probability theory. These include certain well known questions concerning Lorentz scatterers and self-avoiding walks, and also some…
The problem of guessing a random string is revisited. A close relation between guessing and compression is first established. Then it is shown that if the sequence of distributions of the information spectrum satisfies the large deviation…
I am presenting a first-ever scientific collection of short sayings on probability and statistics expressed by most various men of science, many classics included, from antiquity to Kepler to our time. Quite understandably, the reader will…
Among the topics we discuss are certain joint densities (for sides and for angles), acuteness probabilities and bivariate Rice moments.
The following two decision problems capture the complexity of comparing integers or rationals that are succinctly represented in product-of-exponentials notation, or equivalently, via arithmetic circuits using only multiplication and…
Effective bounds on the union probability are well known to be beneficial in the analysis of stochastic problems in many areas, including probability theory, information theory, statistical communications, computing and operations research.…
In probabilistic logic entailments, even moderate size problems can yield linear constraint systems with so many variables that exact methods are impractical. This difficulty can be remedied in many cases of interest by introducing a three…