English

The Three Doors Problem...-s

Applications 2010-03-01 v2 History and Overview

Abstract

I argue that we must distinguish between: (0) the Three-Doors-Problem Problem [sic], which is to make sense of some real world question of a real person. (1) a large number of solutions to this meta-problem, i.e., many specific Three-Doors-Problem problems, which are competing mathematizations of the meta-problem (0). Each of the solutions at level (1) can well have a number of different solutions: nice ones and ugly ones; correct ones and incorrect ones. I discuss three level (1) solutions, i.e., three different Monty Hall problems; and try to give three short correct and attractive solutions. These are: an unconditional probability question; a conditional probability question; and a game-theory question. The meta-message of the article is that applied statisticians should beware of solution-driven science.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1002.3878,
  title  = {The Three Doors Problem...-s},
  author = {Richard D. Gill},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1002.3878},
  year   = {2010}
}

Comments

Submitted to Springer Lexicon of Statistics. Version 2: some minor improvements

R2 v1 2026-06-21T14:49:14.539Z