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With increasing deployment of machine learning systems in various real-world tasks, there is a greater need for accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty. While the common goal in uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Youngseog Chung , Ian Char , Han Guo , Jeff Schneider , Willie Neiswanger

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Identifying and handling label errors can significantly enhance the accuracy of supervised machine learning models. Recent approaches for identifying label errors demonstrate that a low self-confidence of models with respect to a certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Johannes Jakubik , Michael Vössing , Manil Maskey , Christopher Wölfle , Gerhard Satzger

Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Linus Seelinger , Anne Reinarz , Jean Benezech , Mikkel Bue Lykkegaard , Lorenzo Tamellini , Robert Scheichl

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Seongjun Lee , Suwan Yoon , Changhee Lee

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Jiaxin Zhang , Prafulla Kumar Choubey , Kung-Hsiang Huang , Caiming Xiong , Chien-Sheng Wu

As more and more AI agents are used in practice, it is time to think about how to make these agents fully autonomous so that they can learn by themselves in a self-motivated and self-supervised manner rather than being retrained…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Bing Liu , Eric Robertson , Scott Grigsby , Sahisnu Mazumder

A wide range of sustainability and grid-integration strategies depend on workload shifting, which aligns the timing of energy consumption with external signals such as grid curtailment events, carbon intensity, or time-of-use electricity…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Ezra Johnson , Adam Lechowicz , Mohammad Hajiesmaili

Uncertainty quantification by ensemble learning is explored in terms of an application from computational optical form measurements. The application requires to solve a large-scale, nonlinear inverse problem. Ensemble learning is used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Lara Hoffmann , Ines Fortmeier , Clemens Elster

Applications, ranging from tracking molecular motion within cells to analyzing complex animal foraging behavior, require algorithms for associating a collection of spot-like particles in one image with particles contained in another image.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2013-04-23 Alexander Mont , Aubrey V. Wiegel , Diego Krapf , Christopher P. Calderon

AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Zhiting Mei , Tenny Yin , Micah Baker , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Natural Language Generation (NLG) is crucial for assessing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), as it reveals confidence in predictions, identifies failure modes, and gauges output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Sean Wang , Yicheng Jiang , Yuxin Tang , Lu Cheng , Hanjie Chen

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

One of the key obstacles in traditional deep learning is the reduction in model transparency caused by increasingly intricate model functions, which can lead to problems such as overfitting and excessive confidence in predictions. With the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Maximilian Wendlinger , Kilian Tscharke , Pascal Debus

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Chen-Chen Zong , Ye-Wen Wang , Kun-Peng Ning , Hai-Bo Ye , Sheng-Jun Huang

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Continual learning aims to learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones. This is especially challenging when one cannot access data from previous tasks and when the model has a fixed capacity. Current regularization-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-21 Sayna Ebrahimi , Mohamed Elhoseiny , Trevor Darrell , Marcus Rohrbach
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