Related papers: Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate …
In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a…
We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…
We study the relative importance of two key control measures for epidemic spreading: endogenous social self-distancing and exogenous imposed quarantine. We use the framework of adaptive networks, moment-closure, and ordinary differential…
Infectious diseases in livestock are well-known to infect multiple hosts and persist through the combination of within- and between-host transmission pathways. Uncertainty remains about the epidemic consequences of the disease being…
Residential aged-care facilities (RACFs, also called long-term care facilities, aged care homes, or nursing homes) have elevated risks of respiratory infection outbreaks and associated disease burden. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
Network-based interventions against epidemic spread are most powerful when the full network structure is known. However, in practice, resource constraints require decisions to be made based on partial network information. We investigated…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of…
The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many ``structured models'' capture aspects of the contact structure through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hygiene measures, provide the primary means of reducing transmission in the early stages of an epidemic. Individuals adopt one of two…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…
Background: In settings where proof-of-principle trials have succeeded but the effectiveness of different forms of implementation remains uncertain, trials that not only generate information about intervention effects but also provide…
Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…
We present two epidemiological models, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the effect of indiscriminate quarantining, isolation of infected individuals based on testing and the presence of asymptomatic individuals. Given…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…