Related papers: Breaching 1.5{\deg}C: Give me the odds
In this paper, using the Bayesian VAR framework suggested by Chan et al. (2025), we produce conditional temperature forecasts up until 2050, by exploiting both equality and inequality constraints on climate drivers like carbon dioxide or…
If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and…
Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…
Climate change is the long-term shift in global weather patterns, largely caused by anthropogenic activity of greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate temperatures have unmistakably risen and naturally occurring climate variability alone…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…
This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…
Development funds are essential to finance climate change adaptation and are thus an important part of international climate policy. % However, the absence of a common reporting practice makes it difficult to assess the amount and…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
Probabilistic projections of baseline (with no additional mitigation policies) future carbon emissions are important for sound climate risk assessments. Deep uncertainty surrounds many drivers of projected emissions. Here we use a simple…
Public support and political mobilization are two crucial factors for the adoption of ambitious climate policies in line with the international greenhouse gas reduction targets of the Paris Agreement. Despite their compound importance, they…
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…
Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that…
With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…
The Commission of the European Union, as well the United States Environmental Protection Agency, have set limit values for some pollutants in the ambient air that have been shown to have adverse effects on human and environmental health. It…
Global warming presents an unprecedented challenge to our planet however comprehensive understanding remains hindered by geographical biases temporal limitations and lack of standardization in existing research. An end to end visual…
An individual has been subjected to some exposure and has developed some outcome. Using data on similar individuals, we wish to evaluate, for this case, the probability that the outcome was in fact caused by the exposure. Even with the best…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
While the global-average temperatures are rapidly rising, more researchers have been shifting their focus towards the past mass-extinction events in order to show the relations between temperature increase and temperature thresholds which…
Collision prediction in a dynamic and unknown environment relies on knowledge of how the environment is changing. Many collision prediction methods rely on deterministic knowledge of how obstacles are moving in the environment. However,…