Related papers: Breaching 1.5{\deg}C: Give me the odds
An attempt is made to estimate and forecast the trend of the global annual and monthly mean temperatures. The results of a conventional statistical analysis suggest that in the absence of unforeseeable events such as a sudden acceleration…
To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…
Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective equivalences between greenhouse gases, currently require a subjective, arbitrary choice of time horizon. Here, we propose a novel framework that uses a specific temperature goal to…
The temperature targets in the Paris Agreement cannot be met without very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latter requires large, perhaps prohibitively large subsidies. The…
Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility theory as a complementary approach to traditional probability…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with…
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…
We developed a coupled social-climate network model to understand the interaction between climate change opinion spread and the climate system and determine the role of this interaction in shaping collective actions and global temperature…
In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…
Global warming is often framed in broad planetary numbers such as the 1.5C and 2C warming thresholds, creating the false impression that individual corporations efforts to reduce emissions are meaningless in the absence of collective…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C…
As a form of "small A", quantile machine learning is used to forecast diurnal and nocturnal $Q(.90)$ air temperatures for Paris, France from late spring through the summer months of 2021. The data are provided by the Paris-Montsouris…
It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in…
The predictability of errors in deterministic temperature forecasts is investigated. More precisely, the aim is to issue warnings whenever the differences between forecast and verification exceed a given threshold. The warnings are…