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Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-05 Sebastian Scher , Gabriele Messori

Deep ensembles have recently gained popularity in the deep learning community for their conceptual simplicity and efficiency. However, maintaining functional diversity between ensemble members that are independently trained with gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-29 Francesco D'Angelo , Vincent Fortuin

Despite huge advances, LLMs still lack convenient and reliable methods to quantify the uncertainty in their responses, making them difficult to trust in high-stakes applications. One of the simplest approaches to eliciting more accurate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Aparna Nair-Kanneganti , Trevor J. Chan , Shir Goldfinger , Emily Mackay , Brian Anthony , Alison Pouch

We are proposing to use an ensemble of diverse specialists, where speciality is defined according to the confusion matrix. Indeed, we observed that for adversarial instances originating from a given class, labeling tend to be done into a…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-03-13 Mahdieh Abbasi , Christian Gagné

This research introduces a new strategy in cluster ensemble selection by using Independency and Diversity metrics. In recent years, Diversity and Quality, which are two metrics in evaluation procedure, have been used for selecting basic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-11 Muhammad Yousefnezhad , Ali Reihanian , Daoqiang Zhang , Behrouz Minaei-Bidgoli

Next-generation sequencing technologies now constitute a method of choice to measure gene expression. Data to analyze are read counts, commonly modeled using Negative Binomial distributions. A relevant issue associated with this…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-10 Elisabetta Bonafede , Franck Picard , Stéphane Robin , Cinzia Viroli

In this article, we advocate the ensemble approach for variable selection. We point out that the stochastic mechanism used to generate the variable-selection ensemble (VSE) must be picked with care. We construct a VSE using a stochastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-13 Lu Xin , Mu Zhu

Neural network (NN) ensembles can reduce large prediction variance of NN and improve prediction accuracy. For highly nonlinear problems with insufficient data set, the prediction accuracy of NN models becomes unstable, resulting in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Ungki Lee , Namwoo Kang

The prior work on natural language inference (NLI) debiasing mainly targets at one or few known biases while not necessarily making the models more robust. In this paper, we focus on the model-agnostic debiasing strategies and explore how…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Tianyu Liu , Xin Zheng , Xiaoan Ding , Baobao Chang , Zhifang Sui

Reliability of machine learning (ML) systems is crucial in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, and uncertainty estimation is a widely researched method to highlight the confidence of ML systems in deployment. Sequential and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Rishab Khincha , Wazeer Zulfikar , Satrajit Ghosh , Pattie Maes

Large language models (LLMs) are often ensembled together to improve overall reliability and robustness, but in practice models are strongly correlated. This raises a fundamental question: which models should be selected when forming an LLM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yigit Turkmen , Baturalp Buyukates , Melih Bastopcu

Modern machine learning models (such as deep neural networks and boosting decision tree models) have become increasingly popular in financial market prediction, due to their superior capacity to extract complex non-linear patterns. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Chuheng Zhang , Yuanqi Li , Xi Chen , Yifei Jin , Pingzhong Tang , Jian Li

Ensemble of models is well known to improve single model performance. We present a novel ensembling technique coined MAC that is designed to find the optimal function for combining models while remaining invariant to the number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Ohad Silbert , Yitzhak Peleg , Evi Kopelowitz

Feature selection places an important role in improving the performance of outlier detection, especially for noisy data. Existing methods usually perform feature selection and outlier scoring separately, which would select feature subsets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-17 Li Cheng , Yijie Wang , Xinwang Liu , Bin Li

By distributing the training process, local approximation reduces the cost of the standard Gaussian Process. An ensemble technique combines local predictions from Gaussian experts trained on different partitions of the data. Ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Hamed Jalali , Gjergji Kasneci

Numerous real-world decisions rely on machine learning algorithms and require calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The dominant approach to quantifying the…

Ensemble forecasts have become a cornerstone of large-scale disease response, underpinning decision making at agencies such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Their growing use reflects the goal of combining…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-23 Carson Dudley , Marisa Eisenberg

The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-22 Sarah A. Vollert , Christopher Drovandi , Matthew P. Adams

Programmable logic controller (PLC) based industrial control systems (ICS) are used to monitor and control critical infrastructure. Integration of communication networks and an Internet of Things approach in ICS has increased ICS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Emmanuel Aboah Boateng , Bruce J. W

Ensemble methods in machine learning aim to improve prediction accuracy by combining multiple models. This is achieved by ensuring diversity among predictors to capture different data aspects. Homogeneous ensembles use identical models,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Emiliano Tolotti , Enrico Blanzieri , Davide Pastorello
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