Related papers: Distributionally Robust Probabilistic Prediction f…

In this paper, we present a Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Process (DRMDP) approach for addressing the dynamic epidemic control problem. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is widely used to represent the…

We consider a distributionally robust formulation of stochastic optimization problems arising in statistical learning, where robustness is with respect to uncertainty in the underlying data distribution. Our formulation builds on…

Stochastic and (distributionally) robust optimization problems often become computationally challenging as the number of scenarios or data points increases. Scenario reduction is therefore a key technique for improving tractability. We…

One key challenge for multi-task Reinforcement learning (RL) in practice is the absence of task indicators. Robust RL has been applied to deal with task ambiguity, but may result in over-conservative policies. To balance the worst-case…

Learning dynamical systems from incomplete or noisy data is inherently ill-posed, as a single observation may correspond to multiple plausible futures. While physics-based ensemble forecasting relies on perturbing initial states to capture…

We introduce Deep Sigma Point Processes, a class of parametric models inspired by the compositional structure of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) retain many of the attractive features of (variational)…

Most of the methods that produce space weather forecasts are based on deterministic models. In order to generate a probabilistic forecast, a model needs to be run several times sampling the input parameter space, in order to generate an…

We introduce a novel data-driven method to mitigate the risk of cascading failures in delayed discrete-time Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems. Our approach involves formulating a distributionally robust finite-horizon optimal control…

Two-stage stochastic optimization is a framework for modeling uncertainty, where we have a probability distribution over possible realizations of the data, called scenarios, and decisions are taken in two stages: we make first-stage…

Stochastic optimization problems often involve data distributions that change in reaction to the decision variables. This is the case for example when members of the population respond to a deployed classifier by manipulating their features…

Differential dynamic programming (DDP) is a popular technique for solving nonlinear optimal control problems with locally quadratic approximations. However, existing DDP methods are not designed for stochastic systems with unknown…

The non-convexity and intractability of distributionally robust chance constraints make them challenging to cope with. From a data-driven perspective, we propose formulating it as a robust optimization problem to ensure that the…

We consider a distributionally robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations…

Increasing integration of renewable generation poses significant challenges to ensure robustness guarantees in real-time energy system decision-making. This work aims to develop a robust optimal transmission switching (OTS) framework that…

Probabilistic forecasting consists in predicting a distribution of possible future outcomes. In this paper, we address this problem for non-stationary time series, which is very challenging yet crucially important. We introduce the STRIPE…

We introduce data to predictive control, D2PC, a framework to facilitate the design of robust and predictive controllers from data. The proposed framework is designed for discrete-time stochastic linear systems with output measurements and…

In this paper, we study distributionally risk-receptive and distributionally robust (or risk-averse) multistage stochastic mixed-integer programs (denoted by DRR- and DRO-MSIPs). We present cutting plane-based and reformulation-based…

Controllers for dynamical systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modeled as process noise in a dynamical system, and common assumptions are that the underlying…

Markov decision processes (MDP) are a well-established model for sequential decision-making in the presence of probabilities. In robust MDP (RMDP), every action is associated with an uncertainty set of probability distributions, modelling…

In this paper, we propose a stochastic scheduling strategy for estimating the states of N discrete-time linear time invariant (DTLTI) dynamic systems, where only one system can be observed by the sensor at each time instant due to practical…