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Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can provide mechanistic models of temporally local changes of processes, where parameters are often informed by external knowledge. While ODEs are popular in systems modeling, they are less established…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-10 Maren Hackenberg , Astrid Pechmann , Clemens Kreutz , Janbernd Kirschner , Harald Binder

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-01-25 Saber Salehkaleybar , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Anomaly detection is the task of detecting data which differs from the normal behaviour of a system in a given context. In order to approach this problem, data-driven models can be learned to predict current or future observations.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Benedikt Eiteneuer , Oliver Niggemann

A deep latent variable model is a powerful method for capturing complex distributions. These models assume that underlying structures, but unobserved, are present within the data. In this dissertation, we explore high-dimensional problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Khuong Vo

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their expressive representation power and the ability of ancestral sampling. One major difficulty of learning directed models with many latent variables is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Siqi Nie , Qiang Ji

Complex and nonlinear dynamical systems often involve parameters that change with time, accurate tracking of which is essential to tasks such as state estimation, prediction, and control. Existing machine-learning methods require full state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Zheng-Meng Zhai , Mohammadamin Moradi , Bryan Glaz , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

We propose a novel multilinear dynamical system (MLDS) in a transform domain, named $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS, to model tensor time series. With transformations applied to a tensor data, the latent multidimensional correlations among the frontal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Weijun Lu , Xiao-Yang Liu , Qingwei Wu , Yue Sun , Anwar Walid

Identifying dynamical systems from experimental data is a notably difficult task. Prior knowledge generally helps, but the extent of this knowledge varies with the application, and customized models are often needed. Neural ordinary…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-13 Mona Buisson-Fenet , Valery Morgenthaler , Sebastian Trimpe , Florent Di Meglio

Time series prediction is challenging due to our limited understanding of the underlying dynamics. Conventional models such as ARIMA and Holt's linear trend model experience difficulty in identifying nonlinear patterns in time series. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Thu Nguyen , Lam Si Tung Ho

An efficient technique is introduced for model inference of complex nonlinear dynamical systems driven by noise. The technique does not require extensive global optimization, provides optimal compensation for noise-induced errors and is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 V. N. Smelyanskiy , D. A. Timucin , A. Bandrivskyy , D. G. Luchinsky

We seek a computationally efficient model for a collection of time series arising from multiple interacting entities (a.k.a. "agents"). Recent models of temporal patterns across individuals fail to incorporate explicit system-level…

A large variety of dynamical systems, such as chemical and biomolecular systems, can be seen as networks of nonlinear entities. Prediction, control, and identification of such nonlinear networks require knowledge of the state of the system.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Aleksandar Haber , Ferenc Molnar , Adilson E. Motter

Latent force models (LFMs) are flexible models that combine mechanistic modelling principles (i.e., physical models) with non-parametric data-driven components. Several key applications of LFMs need non-linearities, which results in…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Jouni Hartikainen , Mari Seppanen , Simo Sarkka

We propose a new class of waveform foundation models that departs from conventional sequence based representations by modeling physiological time series as realizations of latent event processes. Rather than treating signals as collections…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Li Na , Yuanyun Zhang , Shi Li

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Tetsuro Morimura , Tatsushi Oka , Yugo Suzuki , Daisuke Moriwaki

A central challenge in neuroscience is understanding how neural system implements computation through its dynamics. We propose a nonlinear time series model aimed at characterizing interpretable dynamics from neural trajectories. Our model…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-28 Yuan Zhao , Il Memming Park

Learning how complex dynamical systems evolve over time is a key challenge in system identification. For safety critical systems, it is often crucial that the learned model is guaranteed to converge to some equilibrium point. To this end,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Andreas Schlaginhaufen , Philippe Wenk , Andreas Krause , Florian Dörfler

The Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) network has demonstrated strong capability in modeling complex long-term dependencies in time series data. Despite its success, the deterministic architecture of xLSTM limits its representational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Zihao Wang , Yunjie Li , Lingmin Zan , Zheng Gong , Mengtao Zhu

Dynamical models estimate and predict the temporal evolution of physical systems. State Space Models (SSMs) in particular represent the system dynamics with many desirable properties, such as being able to model uncertainty in both the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Changhao Chen , Chris Xiaoxuan Lu , Bing Wang , Niki Trigoni , Andrew Markham