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We address the problem of estimating the inputs of a dynamical system from measurements of the system's outputs. To this end, we introduce a novel estimation algorithm that explicitly trades off bias and variance to optimally reduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-20 Sebastian Curi , Kfir Y. Levy , Andreas Krause

Phenotypic variability in a population of cells can work as the bet-hedging of the cells under an unpredictably changing environment, the typical example of which is the bacterial persistence. To understand the strategy to control such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-02 So Nakashima , Yuki Sughiyama , Tetsuya J. Kobayashi

We propose a neural network based approach for extracting models from dynamic data using ordinary and partial differential equations. In particular, given a time-series or spatio-temporal dataset, we seek to identify an accurate governing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Yifan Sun , Linan Zhang , Hayden Schaeffer

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-11 César A. Uribe , James Z. Hare , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

Projection-based model reduction has become a popular approach to reduce the cost associated with integrating large-scale dynamical systems so they can be used in many-query settings such as optimization and uncertainty quantification. For…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Han Gao , Jian-Xun Wang , Matthew J. Zahr

We present a data-driven approach to efficiently approximate nonlinear transient dynamics in solid-state systems. Our proposed machine-learning model combines a dimensionality reduction stage with a nonlinear vector autoregression scheme.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-02-22 Stefan Meinecke , Felix Köster , Dominik Christiansen , Kathy Lüdge , Andreas Knorr , Malte Selig

We give a polynomial-time algorithm for learning latent-state linear dynamical systems without system identification, and without assumptions on the spectral radius of the system's transition matrix. The algorithm extends the recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Elad Hazan , Holden Lee , Karan Singh , Cyril Zhang , Yi Zhang

In the application of the Expectation Maximization algorithm to identification of dynamical systems, internal states are typically chosen as latent variables, for simplicity. In this work, we propose a different choice of latent variables,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-06 Jack Umenberger , Johan Wågberg , Ian R. Manchester , Thomas B. Schön

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-15 Joseph Park , Gerald M Pao , Erik Stabenau , George Sugihara , Thomas Lorimer

New technologies for recording the activity of large neural populations during complex behavior provide exciting opportunities for investigating the neural computations that underlie perception, cognition, and decision-making. Nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Yuan Zhao , Il Memming Park

The identification of states and parameters from noisy measurements of a dynamical system is of great practical significance and has received a lot of attention. Classically, this problem is expressed as optimization over a class of models.…

State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-23 Satyaki Mazumder , Sourabh Bhattacharya

A large amount of observational data has been accumulated in various fields in recent times, and there is a growing need to estimate the generating processes of these data. A linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-05 Naoki Tanaka , Shohei Shimizu , Takashi Washio

A new dynamic latent space eigenmodel (LSM) is proposed for weighted temporal networks. The model accommodates integer-valued weights, excess of zeros, time-varying node positions (features), and time-varying network sparsity. The latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Roberto Casarin , Matteo Iacopini , Antonio Peruzzi

Modelling the behaviour of highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification is a challenging task which typically requires approaches specifically designed to address the problem at hand. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Thomas Baldwin-McDonald , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Although static networks have been extensively studied in machine learning, data mining, and AI communities for many decades, the study of dynamic networks has recently taken center stage due to the prominence of social media and its…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Tony Gracious , Shubham Gupta , Arun Kanthali , Rui M. Castro , Ambedkar Dukkipati

Dynamic relational processes, such as e-mail exchanges, bank loans and scientific citations, are important examples of dynamic networks, in which the relational events consistute time-stamped edges. There are contexts where the network…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-24 Igor Artico , Ernst C. Wit

While linear systems have been useful in solving problems across different fields, the need for improved performance and efficiency has prompted them to operate in nonlinear modes. As a result, nonlinear models are now essential for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Abdolvahhab Rostamijavanani , Shanwu Li , Yongchao Yang

Latent force models are systems whereby there is a mechanistic model describing the dynamics of the system state, with some unknown forcing term that is approximated with a Gaussian process. If such dynamics are non-linear, it can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Wil O. C. Ward , Tom Ryder , Dennis Prangle , Mauricio A. Álvarez

We present a data-driven numerical approach for modeling unknown dynamical systems with missing/hidden parameters. The method is based on training a deep neural network (DNN) model for the unknown system using its trajectory data. A key…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 Xiaohan Fu , Weize Mao , Lo-Bin Chang , Dongbin Xiu