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Sentiment analysis, widely used in product reviews, also impacts financial markets by influencing asset prices through microblogs and news articles. Despite research in sentiment-driven finance, many studies focus on sentence-level…

Many models in natural language processing define probabilistic distributions over linguistic structures. We argue that (1) the quality of a model' s posterior distribution can and should be directly evaluated, as to whether probabilities…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2015-09-03 Khanh Nguyen , Brendan O'Connor

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-12 Baptiste Lefort , Eric Benhamou , Jean-Jacques Ohana , David Saltiel , Beatrice Guez , Damien Challet

Stock market prediction is a long-standing challenge in finance, as accurate forecasts support informed investment decisions. Traditional models rely mainly on historical prices, but recent work shows that financial news can provide useful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Nader Sadek , Mirette Moawad , Christina Naguib , Mariam Elzahaby

This paper addresses stock price movement prediction by leveraging LLM-based news sentiment analysis. Earlier works have largely focused on proposing and assessing sentiment analysis models and stock movement prediction methods, however,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Walid Siala , Ahmed Khanfir , Mike Papadakis

We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-28 Vincent Gurgul , Stefan Lessmann , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

When natural language phrases are combined, their meaning is often more than the sum of their parts. In the context of NLP tasks such as sentiment analysis, where the meaning of a phrase is its sentiment, that still applies. Many NLP…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Verna Dankers , Christopher G. Lucas

We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-19 Shuaiyu Chen , T. Clifton Green , Huseyin Gulen , Dexin Zhou

Stock prediction has always been attractive area for researchers and investors since the financial gains can be substantial. However, stock prediction can be a challenging task since stocks are influenced by a multitude of factors whose…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-02-26 Marko Poženel , Dejan Lavbič

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-22 Firuz Kamalov

We investigate the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of U.S. financial news and their potential in predicting stock market returns. We analyze a dataset comprising 965,375 news articles that span from January 1,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-30 Kemal Kirtac , Guido Germano

The comparison of benchmark error sets is an essential tool for the evaluation of theories in computational chemistry. The standard ranking of methods by their Mean Unsigned Error is unsatisfactory for several reasons linked to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Pascal Pernot , Andreas Savin

For both investors and policymakers, forecasting the stock market is essential as it serves as an indicator of economic well-being. To this end, we harness the power of social media data, a rich source of public sentiment, to enhance the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Shengkun Wang , YangXiao Bai , Kaiqun Fu , Linhan Wang , Chang-Tien Lu , Taoran Ji

The relationship between the quality of a string, as judged by a human reader, and its probability, $p(\boldsymbol{y})$ under a language model undergirds the development of better language models. For example, many popular algorithms for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Naaman Tan , Josef Valvoda , Tianyu Liu , Anej Svete , Yanxia Qin , Kan Min-Yen , Ryan Cotterell

The proliferation of news media available online simultaneously presents a valuable resource and significant challenge to analysts aiming to profile and understand social and cultural trends in a geographic location of interest. While an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-08-18 A. Bock , A. Palladino , S. Smith-Heisters , I. Boardman , E. Pellegrini , E. J. Bienenstock , A. Valenti

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, generating factually incorrect or misleading outputs. Uncertainty estimation, often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Manh Nguyen , Sunil Gupta , Hung Le

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Sheri Osborn , Rohit Valecha , H. Raghav Rao , Dan Sass , Anthony Rios

The marvel of markets lies in the fact that dispersed information is instantaneously processed and used to adjust the price of goods, services and assets. Financial markets are particularly efficient when it comes to processing information;…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-19 Stefan Feuerriegel , Helmut Prendinger

In this paper, we propose a modified Levy jump diffusion model with market sentiment memory for stock prices, where the market sentiment comes from data mining implementation using Tweets on Twitter. We take the market sentiment process,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-13 Zheqing Zhu , Jian-guo Liu , Lei Li

Large language models (LLMs) and their fine-tuning techniques have demonstrated superior performance in various language understanding and generation tasks. This paper explores fine-tuning LLMs for stock return forecasting with financial…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-06 Tian Guo , Emmanuel Hauptmann