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Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research, as even the most modest advantage in predictive accuracy can be parlayed into significant financial gains. Recent advances in natural language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Linyi Yang , Yingpeng Ma , Yue Zhang

Forecasting financial market trends through time series analysis and natural language processing poses a complex and demanding undertaking, owing to the numerous variables that can influence stock prices. These variables encompass a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-04 Ali Asgarov

Financial sentiment analysis (FSA) presents unique challenges to LLMs that surpass those in typical sentiment analysis due to the nuanced language used in financial contexts. The prowess of these models is often undermined by the inherent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-14 A M Muntasir Rahman , Ajim Uddin , Guiling "Grace" Wang

This paper introduces a new risk-on risk-off strategy for the stock market, which combines a financial stress indicator with a sentiment analysis done by ChatGPT reading and interpreting Bloomberg daily market summaries. Forecasts of market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-02 Baptiste Lefort , Eric Benhamou , Jean-Jacques Ohana , David Saltiel , Beatrice Guez , Thomas Jacquot

One of the most important studies in finance is to find out whether stock returns could be predicted. This research aims to create a new multivariate model, which includes dividend yield, earnings-to-price ratio, book-to-market ratio as…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-06 Jianying Xie

Researchers and financial professionals require robust computerized tools that allow users to rapidly operationalize and assess the semantic textual content in financial news. However, existing methods commonly work at the document-level…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-01-03 Bernhard Lutz , Nicolas Pröllochs , Dirk Neumann

When an action potential is transmitted to a postsynaptic neuron, a small change in the postsynaptic neuron's membrane potential occurs. These small changes, known as a postsynaptic potentials (PSPs), are highly variable, and current models…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-07-14 Laurence Aitchison , Peter E. Latham

This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project's worldwide news feed using…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-23 Yuke Zhang

We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-17 Ruoxuan Xiong , Eric P. Nichols , Yuan Shen

This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-06 Tian Tian , Ricky Cooper , Jiahao Deng , Qingquan Zhang

Stock price movement prediction is a challenging and essential problem in finance. While it is well established in modern behavioral finance that the share prices of related stocks often move after the release of news via reactions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Luis Villamil , Ryan Bausback , Shaeke Salman , Ting L. Liu , Conrad Horn , Xiuwen Liu

We introduce a set of resampling-based methods for quantifying uncertainty and statistical precision of evaluation metrics in multilingual and/or multitask NLP benchmarks. We show how experimental variation in performance scores arises from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Jonne Sälevä , Duygu Ataman , Constantine Lignos

In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-10 Furkan Karadaş , Bahaeddin Eravcı , Ahmet Murat Özbayoğlu

The classic supervised classification algorithms are efficient, but time-consuming, complicated and not interpretable, which makes it difficult to analyze their results that limits the possibility to improve them based on real observations.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-03-05 Hussam Hamdan

Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Dominik Martin , Philipp Spitzer , Niklas Kühl

We present a software tool that employs state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning techniques to help newspaper editors compose effective headlines for online publication. The system identifies the most salient…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Terrence Szymanski , Claudia Orellana-Rodriguez , Mark T. Keane

The paper is devoted to elaboration of a novel specific indicator based on the modified Holder exponents. This indicator has been used for forecasting critical points of financial time series and crashes of the USA stock market. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-10 Yu. A Kuperin , R. R. Schastlivtsev

It's better to say "I can't answer" than to answer incorrectly. This selective prediction ability is crucial for NLP systems to be reliably deployed in real-world applications. Prior work has shown that existing selective prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Neeraj Varshney , Swaroop Mishra , Chitta Baral

Stock market prediction presents considerable challenges for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers operating in complex market environments characterized by noise, non-stationarity, and behavioral dynamics. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Mohammad Al Ridhawi , Mahtab Haj Ali , Hussein Al Osman

This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-02 Matteo Iacopini , Francesco Ravazzolo , Luca Rossini