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As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with…
The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and…
The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…
Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…
COVID-19 pandemic has sharply projected the globally persistent multi-dimensional fundamental challenges in securing general socio-economic wellbeing of the society. The problems intensify with increasing population densities and also vary…
Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based…
Albeit epidemic models have evolved into powerful predictive tools for the spread of diseases and opinions, most assume memoryless agents and independent transmission channels. We develop an infection mechanism that is endowed with memory…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
Nowadays, due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic modelling is experiencing a constantly growing interest from researchers of heterogeneous fields of study. Indeed, the vast literature on computational epidemiology offers solid grounds for…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting…
We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
It is increasingly important to understand the spatial dynamics of epidemics. While there are numerous mathematical models of epidemics, there is a scarcity of physical systems with sufficiently well-controlled parameters to allow…
The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedy and disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be to manage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific community as to which…
At the end of 2020, policy responses to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak have been shaken by the emergence of virus variants. The emergence of these more contagious, more severe, or even vaccine-resistant strains have challenged worldwide policy…
This paper introduces a novel hybrid model combining Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to simulate infectious disease dynamics across geographic regions. By leveraging the spatial detail of…
Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…
The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses…