Related papers: Multi-scale phylodynamic modelling of rapid punctu…
Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts,…
Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
Effective pandemic control requires timely and coordinated policymaking across administrative regions that are intrinsically interdependent. However, human-driven responses are often fragmented and reactive, with policies formulated in…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
We proposed the SIkJalpha model at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (early 2020). Since then, as the pandemic evolved, more complexities were added to capture crucial factors and variables that can assist with projecting desired…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
While the SARS-CoV-2 keeps spreading world-wide, comparing its evolution across different nations is a timely challenge of both theoretical and practical importance. The large variety of dissimilar and country-dependent epidemiological…
Large-scale longitudinal molecular profiling is now firmly established in biomedical research, prompted by the need to uncover coordinated biomarker trajectories reflecting the dynamics of underlying biological mechanisms and characterise…
The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the…
Motivated by chemical reaction rules, we introduce a rule-based epidemiological framework for the systematic mathematical modelling of future pandemics. Here we stress that we do not have a specific model in mind, but a whole collection of…
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while…
Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…
Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
Ecological and evolutionary dynamics have been historically regarded as unfolding at broadly separated timescales. However, these two types of processes are nowadays well documented to much more tightly than traditionally assumed,…
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…