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Accurate ocean forecasting is crucial in different areas ranging from science to decision making. Recent advancements in data-driven models have shown significant promise, particularly in weather forecasting community, but yet no…

Operational forecasting centers are investing in decadal (1-10 year) forecast systems to support long-term decision making for a more climate-resilient society. One method that has previously been employed is the Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Eduardo Rodrigues , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell Watson , David Gold

The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-23 Ruiqi Shu , Hao Wu , Yuan Gao , Fanghua Xu , Ruijian Gou , Xiaomeng Huang

AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-09 Qin Huang , Moyan Liu , Yeongbin Kwon , Upmanu Lall

Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Bosong Zhang , Timothy M. Merlis

Climate emulation is an out-of-distribution (OOD) projection task. This is precisely the challenge where modern Machine Learning (ML) methods are most prone to failure. Consequently, while current ML emulators trained on present climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Bradley Stanley-Clamp , Anson Lei , Hannah M. Christensen , Ingmar Posner

Satellite altimetry combined with data assimilation and optimal interpolation schemes have deeply renewed our ability to monitor sea surface dynamics. Recently, deep learning (DL) schemes have emerged as appealing solutions to address…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-27 Quentin Febvre , Julien Le Sommer , Clément Ubelmann , Ronan Fablet

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-07 Saumya Sinha , John Fasullo , R. Steven Nerem , Claire Monteleoni

Radiative transfer calculations are essential for modeling planetary atmospheres. However, standard methods are computationally demanding and impose accuracy-speed trade-offs. High computational costs force numerical simplifications in…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-03 Isaac Malsky , Tiffany Kataria , Natasha E. Batalha , Matthew Graham

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Graham Clyne , Julia Kaltenborn , Peer Nowack , Claire Monteleoni , Anasatase Charantonis

Accurately reconstructing the global ocean deoxygenation over a century is crucial for assessing and protecting marine ecosystem. Existing expert-dominated numerical simulations fail to catch up with the dynamic variation caused by global…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Bin Lu , Ze Zhao , Luyu Han , Xiaoying Gan , Yuntao Zhou , Lei Zhou , Luoyi Fu , Xinbing Wang , Chenghu Zhou , Jing Zhang

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-09 Matthew Bonas , Christopher K. Wikle , Stefano Castruccio

Ocean dynamics are often sidelined in exoplanet climate studies due to the high computational cost of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs). However, ocean heat transport (OHT) can play a critical role in shaping…

Accurate subgrid-scale closures are essential for weather/climate models, where predicting extreme events is critical. Traditional closures have structural errors, e.g., producing excessive diffusion that dampens extremes. Artificial…

A~machine learning framework is developed to estimate ocean-wave conditions. By supervised training of machine learning models on many thousands of iterations of a physics-based wave model, accurate representations of significant wave…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-09-27 Scott C. James , Yushan Zhang , Fearghal O'Donncha

Numerical simulation of fluids plays an essential role in modeling many physical phenomena, such as weather, climate, aerodynamics and plasma physics. Fluids are well described by the Navier-Stokes equations, but solving these equations at…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-04-27 Dmitrii Kochkov , Jamie A. Smith , Ayya Alieva , Qing Wang , Michael P. Brenner , Stephan Hoyer

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts help with managing the marine ecosystem and the aquaculture impacted by anthropogenic climate change. Numerical dynamical models are resource intensive for SST forecasts; machine learning (ML) models…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Ding Ning , Varvara Vetrova , Karin R. Bryan

A large fraction of known terrestrial-size exoplanets located in the Habitable Zone of M-dwarfs are expected to be tidally-locked. Numerous efforts have been conducted to study the climate of such planets, using in particular 3-D Global…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-06-09 Maxence Lefèvre , Martin Turbet , Raymond Pierrehumbert

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Moyan Liu , Qin Huang , Upmanu Lall

We introduce OceanGym, the first comprehensive benchmark for ocean underwater embodied agents, designed to advance AI in one of the most demanding real-world environments. Unlike terrestrial or aerial domains, underwater settings present…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Yida Xue , Mingjun Mao , Xiangyuan Ru , Yuqi Zhu , Baochang Ren , Shuofei Qiao , Mengru Wang , Shumin Deng , Xinyu An , Ningyu Zhang , Ying Chen , Huajun Chen
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