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(Abridged) Simulation-based inference (SBI) has emerged as a powerful framework for extracting cosmological information from complex, non-linear data where analytical likelihoods are unavailable. Its reliability is commonly assessed using…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-07 Toka Alokda , Cristiano Porciani , Alexander Eggemeier

The standard approach to inference from cosmic large-scale structure data employs summary statistics that are compared to analytic models in a Gaussian likelihood with pre-computed covariance. To overcome the idealising assumptions about…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-24 Kiyam Lin , Maximilian von Wietersheim-Kramsta , Benjamin Joachimi , Stephen Feeney

Observations of the cosmic 21-cm power spectrum (PS) are starting to enable precision Bayesian inference of galaxy properties and physical cosmology, during the first billion years of our Universe. Here we investigate the impact of common…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-12 David Prelogović , Andrei Mesinger

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is rapidly establishing itself as a standard machine learning technique for analyzing data in cosmological surveys. Despite continual improvements to the quality of density estimation by learned models,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-03 Pablo Lemos , Miles Cranmer , Muntazir Abidi , ChangHoon Hahn , Michael Eickenberg , Elena Massara , David Yallup , Shirley Ho

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

A central challenge in many areas of science and engineering is to identify model parameters that are consistent with prior knowledge and empirical data. Bayesian inference offers a principled framework for this task, but can be…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-12 Leander Thiele

For complex simulation problems, inferring parameters often precludes the use of classical likelihood-based techniques due to intractable likelihoods. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods offer a likelihood-free approach to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Haley Rosso , Talea Mayo

Knowledge of the primordial matter density field from which the large-scale structure of the Universe emerged over cosmic time is of fundamental importance for cosmology. However, reconstructing these cosmological initial conditions from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-06 Oleg Savchenko , Guillermo Franco Abellán , Florian List , Noemi Anau Montel , Christoph Weniger

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Jonas Beck , Michael Deistler , Yves Bernaerts , Jakob Macke , Philipp Berens

We develop the framework of Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI), an application of simulation-based inference where the likelihood is approximated by a Gaussian linear function of its parameters. We obtain analytical expressions for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-08 Nicolas Mediato-Diaz , Will Handley

We present a Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) framework for cosmological parameter estimation via void lensing analysis. Despite the absence of an analytical model of void lensing, SBI can effectively learn posterior distributions through…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Chen Su , Huanyuan Shan , Cheng Zhao , Wenshuo Xu , Jiajun Zhang

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Theo Gruner , Boris Belousov , Fabio Muratore , Daniel Palenicek , Jan Peters

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Mila Gorecki , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Dan Leonte , Raphaël Huser , Almut E. D. Veraart

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-15 A. A. Saoulis , D. Piras , A. Spurio Mancini , B. Joachimi , A. M. G. Ferreira

We present FlowSN, a statistical framework using simulation-based inference (SBI) with normalising flows to account for selection effects in observational astronomy. Failure to account for selection effects can lead to biased inference on…

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