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Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-20 A. A. Saoulis , T. -S. Pham , A. M. G. Ferreira

We present a simulation-based inference (SBI) cosmological analysis of cosmic shear two-point statistics from the fourth weak gravitational lensing data release of the ESO Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000). KiDS-SBI efficiently performs…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-19 Maximilian von Wietersheim-Kramsta , Kiyam Lin , Nicolas Tessore , Benjamin Joachimi , Arthur Loureiro , Robert Reischke , Angus H. Wright

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peter Matthew Jacobs , Lekha Patel , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically require fully observed data to infer parameters of models with intractable likelihood functions. However, datasets often contain missing values due to incomplete observations, data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yogesh Verma , Ayush Bharti , Vikas Garg

Cosmological inferences typically rely on explicit expressions for the likelihood and covariance of the data vector, which normally consists of a set of summary statistics. However, in the case of nonlinear large-scale structure, exact…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-08-29 Beatriz Tucci , Fabian Schmidt

We present a method for obtaining efficient probabilistic solutions to geostatistical and linear inverse problems in spherical geometry. Our Spherical Direct Sequential Simulation (SDSSIM) framework combines information from possibly noisy…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-04-08 Mikkel Otzen , Christopher C. Finlay , Thomas Mejer Hansen

Neural networks are being extensively used for modelling data, especially in the case where no likelihood can be formulated. Although in the case of X-ray spectral fitting, the likelihood is known, we aim to investigate the neural networks…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-17 Nicolas Bousquet , Mélanie Blazère , Thomas Cerbelaud

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-02 Moonzarin Reza , Yuanyuan Zhang , Brian Nord , Jason Poh , Aleksandra Ciprijanovic , Louis Strigari

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-15 Stephanie M. Brown , Mattia Bulla , Hiranya V. Peiris , Nikhil Sarin , Daniel Mortlock , Stephen Thorp , Gurjeet Jagwani , Stephan Rosswog , Samaya Nissanke

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) deals with statistical inference in problems where the data are generated from a system that is described by a complex stochastic simulator. The challenge for inference in these problems is that the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-17 David Refaeli , Mira Marcus-Kalish , David M. Steinberg

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods…

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Davide Valsecchi , Mauro Donegà , Rainer Wallny

Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional…

Extracting maximum cosmological information from current and upcoming large-scale structure data requires going beyond summary statistics as currently used in likelihood-based inference. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) promises to enable…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-27 Giulio Scelfo , Satvik Mishra , Mauro Rigo , Roberto Trotta , Matteo Viel

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-17 John Geweke , Garland Durham , Huaxin Xu