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Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-01 Germano Hartmann Brill , Pablo Enrique Jurado Silvestrin , Sebastian Gonçalves

We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-11-23 Andrew J Black , Alan J McKane

This paper presents an SIR epidemic model with two different types of perturbations: white and L\'evy noises. We consecrate to develop a mathematical method to obtain the asymptotic properties of the perturbed model. We use the comparison…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Driss Kiouach , Yassine Sabbar

Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-21 Raphael Morsomme , Jason Xu

Over the past century, nonlinear difference and differential equations have been used to understand conditions for species coexistence. However, these models fail to account for random fluctuations due to demographic and environmental…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-12 Sebastian J. Schreiber

We investigate the global dynamics of a general Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic model formulated in terms of a system of renewal equations. Specifically, we consider a renewal model for which both the force of infection and the infected…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-10-04 Michael T. Meehan , Daniel G. Cocks , Johannes Müller , Emma S. McBryde

In the long run, the eventual extinction of any biological population is an inevitable outcome. While extensive research has focused on the average time it takes for a population to go extinct under various circumstances, there has been…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-18 David Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…

We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-07-31 Alexei J. Drummond , Peter D. Drummond

This work proposes and analyzes a family of spatially inhomogeneous epidemic models. This is our first effort to use stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) to model epidemic dynamics with spatial variations and environmental…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Dang H Nguyen , Nhu N Nguyen , George Yin

We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Hélène Guérin , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

This paper proposes an approach to mitigate epidemic spread in a population of strategic agents by encouraging safer behaviors through carefully designed rewards. These rewards, which adapt to the evolving state of the epidemic, are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-31 Shinkyu Park , Jair Certorio , Nuno C. Martins , Richard J. La

We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting. In particular, we deal with challenges…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-10 Angelos Alexopoulos , Paul Birrell , Daniela De Angelis

In the world of epidemics, the mathematical modeling of disease co-infection is gaining importance due to its contributions to mathematics and public health. Because the co-infection may have a double burden on families, countries, and the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-12 Anna Daniel Fome , Wolfgang Bock , Axel Klar

Motivated by infinite-dimensional ecological and biological models such as reaction-diffusion SPDEs and stochastic functional differential equations, we develop a general criteria for stochastic persistence (coexistence) in terms of an…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Juraj Foldes , Declan Stacy

We study the stochastic dynamics of a system of interacting species in a stochastic environment by means of a continuous-time Markov chain with transition rates depending on the state of the environment. Models of gene regulation in systems…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-12-03 Daniele Cappelletti , Abhishek Pal Majumder , Carsten Wiuf

We propose a system theoretic approach to select and stabilize the endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model in which the decisions of a population of strategically interacting agents determine the transmission rate. Specifically, the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-01-26 Nuno C. Martins , Jair Certorio , Richard J. La

Public health services are constantly searching for new ways to reduce the spread of infectious diseases, such as public vaccination of asymptomatic individuals, quarantine (isolation) and treatment of symptomatic individuals. Epidemic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-06-11 Shanshan Chen , Michael Small , Xinchu Fu

Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-28 O. Mosbah , N. Zekri , M. Mokhtari , S. Sahraoui

With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Yuhan Li , Ziyan Zeng , Minyu Feng , Jürgen Kurths