Related papers: Stochastic Dynamics and Probability Analysis for a…
We study the spread of an SIRS-type epidemic with vaccination on network. Starting from an exact Markov description of the model, we investigate the mean epidemic lifetime by providing a sufficient condition for fast extinction that depends…
Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…
The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the…
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
We present a control framework for stochastic compartmental models in epidemiology. In this framework, rather than directly controlling the stochastic system, we perform optimal control of an associated Fokker-Planck equation, with the goal…
We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed by individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…
The present paper is devoted to the study of the long term dynamics of diffusion processes modelling a single species that experiences both demographic and environmental stochasticity. In our setting, the long term dynamics of the diffusion…
This paper considers a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and varying total population. The interaction of the susceptible and infected people is describe by the…
In this paper we investigate a stochastic model for an economic game. To describe this model we have used a Wiener process, as the noise has a stabilization effect. The dynamics are studied in terms of stochastic stability in the stationary…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…
Natural fluctuations have played a crucial role in affecting the dynamics of pervasive diseases such as the coronavirus. Examining the effects of irregular unsettling disturbances on epidemic models is important for understanding these…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
In this paper we investigate a stochastic model for an economic game. To describe this model we have used a Wiener process, as the noise has a stabilization effect. The dynamics are studied in terms of stochastic stability in the stationary…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…
We are concerned with a nonlinear nonautonomous model represented by an equation describing the dynamics of an age-structured population diffusing in a space habitat $O,$ governed by local Lipschitz vital factors and by a stochastic…