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In online advertising, it is highly important to predict the probability and the value of a conversion (e.g., a purchase). It not only impacts user experience by showing relevant ads, but also affects ROI of advertisers and revenue of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-26 Hui Gao , Yihan Yang

Predicting the expected value or number of post-click conversions (purchases or other events) is a key task in performance-based digital advertising. In training a conversion optimizer model, one of the most crucial aspects is handling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-08 Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru , Andrew Evdokimov , Vinodh Krishnan , Pan Li , Wynn Vonnegut , Jayden Wang

The goal of online display advertising is to entice users to "convert" (i.e., take a pre-defined action such as making a purchase) after clicking on the ad. An important measure of the value of an ad is the probability of conversion. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-25 Abdollah Safari , Rachel MacKay Altman , Thomas M. Loughin

Online advertising and product recommendation are important domains of applications for multi-armed bandit methods. In these fields, the reward that is immediately available is most often only a proxy for the actual outcome of interest,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-13 Claire Vernade , Olivier Cappé , Vianney Perchet

Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Junwei Pan , Yizhi Mao , Alfonso Lobos Ruiz , Yu Sun , Aaron Flores

Conversion rate prediction is critical to many online applications such as digital display advertising. To capture dynamic data distribution, industrial systems often require retraining models on recent data daily or weekly. However, the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Yifan Wang , Peijie Sun , Min Zhang , Qinglin Jia , Jingjie Li , Shaoping Ma

In online advertising (Ad), advertisers are always eager to know how to globally optimize their budget allocation strategies across different channels for more conversions such as orders, payments, etc. Ignoring competition among different…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-12 Guangyuan Shen , Shenjie Sun , Dehong Gao , Shaolei Li , Libin Yang , Yongping Shi , Wei Ning

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular topic modeling technique in academia but less so in industry, especially in large-scale applications involving search engine and online advertising systems. A main underlying reason is that the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2015-12-08 Yi Wang , Xuemin Zhao , Zhenlong Sun , Hao Yan , Lifeng Wang , Zhihui Jin , Liubin Wang , Yang Gao , Ching Law , Jia Zeng

A myriad of factors affect large scale ads delivery systems and influence both user experience and revenue. One such factor is proactive detection and calibration of seasonal advertisements to help with increasing conversion and user…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Hamid Eghbalzadeh , Shuai Shao , Saurabh Verma , Venugopal Mani , Hongnan Wang , Jigar Madia , Vitali Karpinchyk , Andrey Malevich

Managing millions of digital auctions is an essential task for modern advertising auction systems. The main approach to managing digital auctions is an autobidding approach, which depends on the Click-Through Rate and Conversion Rate…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Andrey Pudovikov , Alexandra Khirianova , Ekaterina Solodneva , Gleb Molodtsov , Aleksandr Katrutsa , Yuriy Dorn , Egor Samosvat

Optimizing conversions is crucial in modern online advertising systems, enabling advertisers to deliver relevant products to users and drive business outcomes. However, accurately predicting conversion events remains challenging due to…

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-19 Jia-Qi Yang , Xiang Li , Shuguang Han , Tao Zhuang , De-Chuan Zhan , Xiaoyi Zeng , Bin Tong

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-20 Yuta Saito , Gota Morishita , Shota Yasui

This paper explores an improved Adaboost algorithm based on Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), which aims to improve the prediction accuracy of user clicks on web page advertisements. By comparing it with several common machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Qixuan Yu , Xirui Tang , Feiyang Li , Zinan Cao

Online advertising platforms often face a common challenge: the cold start problem. Insufficient behavioral data (clicks) makes accurate click-through rate (CTR) forecasting of new ads challenging. CTR for "old" items can also be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Anastasiia Soboleva , Andrey Pudovikov , Roman Snetkov , Alina Babenko , Egor Samosvat , Yuriy Dorn

One of the challenges in display advertising is that the distribution of features and click through rate (CTR) can exhibit large shifts over time due to seasonality, changes to ad campaigns and other factors. The predominant strategy to…

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a probabilistic model used to uncover latent topics in a corpus of documents. Inference is often performed using variational Bayes (VB) algorithms, which calculate a lower bound to the posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Rebecca M. C. Taylor , Dirko Coetsee , Johan A. du Preez

Real-time advertising allows advertisers to bid for each impression for a visiting user. To optimize specific goals such as maximizing revenue and return on investment (ROI) led by ad placements, advertisers not only need to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Junqi Jin , Chengru Song , Han Li , Kun Gai , Jun Wang , Weinan Zhang

For Verizon MediaDemand Side Platform(DSP), forecasting of ad campaign performance not only feeds key information to the optimization server to allow the system to operate on a high-performance mode, but also produces actionable insights to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-16 Hao He , Tian Zhou , Lihua Ren , Niklas Karlsson , Aaron Flores

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Yuwei Cheng , Zifeng Zhao , Haifeng Xu
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