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In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Shota Yasui , Gota Morishita , Komei Fujita , Masashi Shibata

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

Real-Time Bidding (RTB) is an important paradigm in display advertising, where advertisers utilize extended information and algorithms served by Demand Side Platforms (DSPs) to improve advertising performance. A common problem for DSPs is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Xun Yang , Yasong Li , Hao Wang , Di Wu , Qing Tan , Jian Xu , Kun Gai

In cost-per-click (CPC) or cost-per-impression (CPM) advertising campaigns, advertisers always run the risk of spending the budget without getting enough conversions. Moreover, the bidding on advertising inventory has few connections with…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Deguang Kong , Konstantin Shmakov , Jian Yang

As advertisers increasingly shift their budgets toward digital advertising, accurately forecasting advertising costs becomes essential for optimizing marketing campaign returns. This paper presents a comprehensive study that employs various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Fynn Oldenburg , Qiwei Han , Maximilian Kaiser

Predicting user response probabilities is vital for ad ranking and bidding. We hope that predictive models can produce accurate probabilistic predictions that reflect true likelihoods. Calibration techniques aim to post-process model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Penghui Wei , Weimin Zhang , Ruijie Hou , Jinquan Liu , Shaoguo Liu , Liang Wang , Bo Zheng

Real-time Bidding (RTB) advertisers wish to \textit{know in advance} the expected cost and yield of ad campaigns to avoid trial-and-error expenses. However, Campaign Performance Forecasting (CPF), a sequence modeling task involving tens of…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-05-20 XiaoYu Wang , YongHui Guo , Hui Sheng , Peili Lv , Chi Zhou , Wei Huang , ShiQin Ta , Dongbo Huang , XiuJin Yang , Lan Xu , Hao Zhou , Yusheng Ji

Bid optimization in online advertising relies on black-box machine-learning models that learn bidding decisions from historical data. However, these approaches fail to replicate human experts' adaptive, experience-driven, and globally…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Huixiang Luo , Longyu Gao , Yaqi Liu , Qianqian Chen , Pingchun Huang , Tianning Li

Extreme multi-label classification (XML) involves tagging a data point with its most relevant subset of labels from an extremely large label set, with several applications such as product-to-product recommendation with millions of products.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-08-03 Anshul Mittal , Kunal Dahiya , Sheshansh Agrawal , Deepak Saini , Sumeet Agarwal , Purushottam Kar , Manik Varma

Internet market makers are always facing intense competitive environment, where personalized price reductions or discounted coupons are provided for attracting more customers. Participants in such a price war scenario have to invest a lot…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-24 Chenchen Li , Xiang Yan , Xiaotie Deng , Yuan Qi , Wei Chu , Le Song , Junlong Qiao , Jianshan He , Junwu Xiong

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a core component of online advertising systems, where the attribution mechanisms-rules for allocating conversion credit across user touchpoints-fundamentally determine label generation and model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Sishuo Chen , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Lei Zhang , Sheng Chen , Chenghuan Hou , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

Online advertising has typically been more personalized than offline advertising, through the use of machine learning models and real-time auctions for ad targeting. One specific task, predicting the likelihood of conversion (i.e.\ the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Conor O'Brien , Arvind Thiagarajan , Sourav Das , Rafael Barreto , Chetan Verma , Tim Hsu , James Neufield , Jonathan J Hunt

In most real-world online advertising systems, advertisers typically have diverse customer acquisition goals. A common solution is to use multi-task learning (MTL) to train a unified model on post-click data to estimate the conversion rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Qinglin Jia , Zhaocheng Du , Chuhan Wu , Huifeng Guo , Ruiming Tang , Shuting Shi , Muyu Zhang

We present a data-driven algorithm that advertisers can use to automate their digital ad-campaigns at online publishers. The algorithm enables the advertiser to search across available target audiences and ad-media to find the best possible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Wenjia Ba , J. Michael Harrison , Harikesh S. Nair

In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-04 Saeid Soheily Khah , Yiming Wu

Multi-label learning predicts a subset of labels from a given label set for an unseen instance while considering label correlations. A known challenge with multi-label classification is the long-tailed distribution of labels. Many studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-06 Vithya Yogarajan , Bernhard Pfahringer , Tony Smith , Jacob Montiel

Labeled Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LLDA) is an extension of the standard unsupervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm, to address multi-label learning tasks. Previous work has shown it to perform in par with other…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-19 Yannis Papanikolaou , Grigorios Tsoumakas

In computational advertising, a challenging problem is how to recommend the bid for advertisers to achieve the best return on investment (ROI) given budget constraint. This paper presents a bid recommendation scenario that discovers the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Deguang Kong , Konstantin Shmakov , Jian Yang

Momentum strategies are an important part of alternative investments and are at the heart of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). These strategies have, however, been found to have difficulties adjusting to rapid changes in market conditions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kieran Wood , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren

Dataset distillation compresses large-scale datasets into compact, highly informative synthetic data, significantly reducing storage and training costs. However, existing research primarily focuses on balanced datasets and struggles to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Chenyang Jiang , Hang Zhao , Xinyu Zhang , Zhengcen Li , Qiben Shan , Shaocong Wu , Jingyong Su