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Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a powerful optimization technique that is particularly useful in online learning scenarios. Its convergence analysis is relatively well understood under the assumption that the data samples are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Ethan Che , Jing Dong , Xin T. Tong

We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Aodong Li , Alex Boyd , Padhraic Smyth , Stephan Mandt

To gain finer regional forecasts, many works have explored the regional integration from the global atmosphere, e.g., by solving boundary equations in physics-based methods or cropping regions from global forecasts in data-driven methods.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Hao Chen , Tao Han , Jie Zhang , Song Guo , Lei Bai

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as signal control and network-level traffic management. In real-world deployments, forecasting models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yue Wang , Areg Karapetyan , Djellel Difallah , Samer Madanat

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Yuansan Liu , Sudanthi Wijewickrema , Dongting Hu , Christofer Bester , Stephen O'Leary , James Bailey

As a decisive part in the success of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), spatio-temporal predictive modeling for crowd movements is a challenging task particularly considering scenarios where societal events drive mobility behavior deviated from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-17 Zhaonan Wang , Renhe Jiang , Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim , Xuan Song , Ryosuke Shibasaki

Modern configurable software systems need to learn models that correlate configuration and performance. However, when the system operates in dynamic environments, the workload variations, hardware changes, and system updates will inevitably…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Zezhen Xiang , Jingzhi Gong , Tao Chen

We propose a novel framework for analyzing the dynamics of distribution shift in real-world systems that captures the feedback loop between learning algorithms and the distributions on which they are deployed. Prior work largely models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Lauren Conger , Franca Hoffmann , Eric Mazumdar , Lillian Ratliff

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Yutong Xia , Yuxuan Liang , Haomin Wen , Xu Liu , Kun Wang , Zhengyang Zhou , Roger Zimmermann

As the most representative scenario of spatial-temporal forecasting tasks, the traffic forecasting task attracted numerous attention from machine learning community due to its intricate correlation both in space and time dimension. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Xinyu Ning

This work focuses on classification over time series data. When a time series is generated by non-stationary phenomena, the pattern relating the series with the class to be predicted may evolve over time (concept drift). Consequently,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-02 Eric L. Manibardo , Ibai Laña , Jesus L. Lobo , Javier Del Ser

In real-world settings, robots are expected to assist humans across diverse tasks and still continuously adapt to dynamic changes over time. For example, in domestic environments, robots can proactively help users by fetching needed objects…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Ermanno Bartoli , Fethiye Irmak Dogan , Iolanda Leite

We present a generic framework for spatio-temporal (ST) data modeling, analysis, and forecasting, with a special focus on data that is sparse in both space and time. Our multi-scaled framework is a seamless coupling of two major components:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-04 Bao Wang , Xiyang Luo , Fangbo Zhang , Baichuan Yuan , Andrea L. Bertozzi , P. Jeffrey Brantingham

This work examines the close interplay between cooperation and adaptation for distributed detection schemes over fully decentralized networks. The combined attributes of cooperation and adaptation are necessary to enable networks of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Vincenzo Matta , Paolo Braca , Stefano Marano , Ali H. Sayed

We study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data streams subject to unknown distribution drift. While most prior work studied this problem under adversarial settings and/or assessed performance in terms of gaps of time-averaged…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Jiadong Liang , Zhimei Ren , Yuxin Chen

Continual learning is the problem of learning and retaining knowledge through time over multiple tasks and environments. Research has primarily focused on the incremental classification setting, where new tasks/classes are added at discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-23 Zhipeng Cai , Ozan Sener , Vladlen Koltun

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Lu Han , Xu-Yang Chen , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Traffic prediction is a cornerstone of modern intelligent transportation systems and a critical task in spatio-temporal forecasting. Although advanced Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) and pre-trained models have achieved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Weilin Ruan , Xilin Dang , Ziyu Zhou , Sisuo Lyu , Yuxuan Liang

Comparing data defined over space and time is notoriously hard, because it involves quantifying both spatial and temporal variability, while at the same time taking into account the chronological structure of data. Dynamic Time Warping…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Hicham Janati , Marco Cuturi , Alexandre Gramfort

We study distributionally robust online learning, where a risk-averse learner updates decisions sequentially to guard against worst-case distributions drawn from a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at past observations. While this paradigm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Guixian Chen , Salar Fattahi , Soroosh Shafiee