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Reinforcement learning algorithms have been widely used for decision-making tasks in various domains. However, the performance of these algorithms can be impacted by high variance and instability, particularly in environments with noise or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Saunak Kumar Panda , Tong Li , Ruiqi Liu , Yisha Xiang

Incorporating social interactions is essential to an accurate modeling of epidemic spreading. This work proposes a novel local mean-field density functional theory model by using the sum-of-exponential approximation of convolution kernels…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-09-09 Ziheng Xu , Shenggao Zhou

The Na\"ive Mean Field (NMF) approximation is widely employed in modern Machine Learning due to the huge computational gains it bestows on the statistician. Despite its popularity in practice, theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Jiaze Qiu

This study addresses primal-dual dynamics for a stochastic programming problem for capacity network design. It is proven that consensus can be achieved on the \textit{here and now} variables which represent the capacity of the network. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Casper T. Röling , Dario Bauso , Hamidou Tembine

We consider nonparametric statistical inference for L\'evy processes sampled irregularly, at low frequency. The estimation of the jump dynamics as well as the estimation of the distributional density are investigated. Non-asymptotic risk…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-23 Johanna Kappus

We develop an asymptotic theory for $L^2$ norms of sample mean vectors of high-dimensional data. An invariance principle for the $L^2$ norms is derived under conditions that involve a delicate interplay between the dimension $p$, the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Mengyu Xu , Danna Zhang , Wei Biao Wu

To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a set of $P$ unknown model parameters from $N$ noisy measurements. What are fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given finite signal-to-noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-07 Madhu Advani , Surya Ganguli

A central limit theorem is established for a sum of random variables belonging to a sequence of random fields. The fields are assumed to have zero mean conditional on the past history and to satisfy certain conditional $\alpha$-mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Abdollah Jalilian , Arnaud Poinas , Ganggang Xu , Rasmus Waagepetersen

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

Diffusion is a key element of a large set of phenomena occurring on natural and social systems modeled in terms of complex weighted networks. Here, we introduce a general formalism that allows to easily write down mean-field equations for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-07-14 Andrea Baronchelli , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras

Studies on social networks have proved that endogenous and exogenous factors influence dynamics. Two streams of modeling exist on explaining the dynamics of social networks: 1) models predicting links through network properties, and 2)…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-10-22 Julie M. Birkholz , Rena Bakhshi , Ravindra Harige , Maarten van Steen , Peter Groenewegen

The Manifold Hypothesis is a widely accepted tenet of Machine Learning which asserts that nominally high-dimensional data are in fact concentrated near a low-dimensional manifold, embedded in high-dimensional space. This phenomenon is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Nick Whiteley , Annie Gray , Patrick Rubin-Delanchy

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Jonathan Weare

It is common to use a compartmental, fluid model described by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model disease spread. In addition to their simplicity, these models are also the mean-field approximations of more accurate…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-15 Benjamin Armbruster , Ekkehard Beck

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

We consider quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for general non-Gaussian discrete-ime linear state space models and equidistantly observed multivariate L\'evy-driven continuoustime autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) processes. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Eckhard Schlemm , Robert Stelzer

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Sina Mews , Roland Langrock , Marius Ötting , Houda Yaqine , Jost Reinecke

Currently, there is no general theory for deriving diffusion approximations of queueing systems with high- or infinite-dimensional state descriptors. In this paper, we explore one path for deriving diffusion limit equations of queueing…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Eva H Loeser

Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change-point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Rui Song , Moulinath Banerjee , Michael R. Kosorok

The task of state estimation in active distribution systems faces a major challenge due to the integration of different measurements with multiple reporting rates. As a result, distribution systems are essentially unobservable in real time,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-13 J. G. De la Varga , S. Pineda , J. M. Morales , Á. Porras