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Consider estimation of average treatment effects with multi-valued treatments using augmented inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators, depending on outcome regression and propensity score models in high-dimensional settings. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Wenfu Xu , Zhiqiang Tan

Offline policy optimization could have a large impact on many real-world decision-making problems, as online learning may be infeasible in many applications. Importance sampling and its variants are a commonly used type of estimator in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Yao Liu , Yannis Flet-Berliac , Emma Brunskill

How should researchers adjust for covariates? We show that if the propensity score is estimated using a specific covariate balancing approach, inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW), and inverse…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Tymon Słoczyński , S. Derya Uysal , Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

This paper develops an updatable inverse probability weighting (UIPW) estimation for the generalized linear models with response missing at random in streaming data sets. A two-step online updating algorithm is provided for the proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-10 Xianhua Zhang , Lu lin , Qihua Wang

We study the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation, which aims to estimate the value function of a target policy based on the offline data collected by a behavior policy. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 Yifei Min , Tianhao Wang , Dongruo Zhou , Quanquan Gu

We offer a theoretical characterization of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning using function approximation for marginal importance weights and $q$-functions when these are estimated using recent minimax methods. Under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Masatoshi Uehara , Masaaki Imaizumi , Nan Jiang , Nathan Kallus , Wen Sun , Tengyang Xie

We address policy learning with logged data in contextual bandits. Current offline-policy learning algorithms are mostly based on inverse propensity score (IPS) weighting requiring the logging policy to have \emph{full support} i.e. a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-27 Hung Tran-The , Sunil Gupta , Thanh Nguyen-Tang , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where the aim is to estimate the performance of a new policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy, or policies. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-16 Aurélien F. Bibaut , Ivana Malenica , Nikos Vlassis , Mark J. van der Laan

Estimating treatment effects is of great importance for many biomedical applications with observational data. Particularly, interpretability of the treatment effects is preferable for many biomedical researchers. In this paper, we first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-28 Kan Chen , Qishuo Yin , Qi Long

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is a general tool in survey sampling and causal inference, used both in Horvitz-Thompson estimators, which normalize by the sample size, and H\'ajek/self-normalized estimators, which normalize by the sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-13 Samir Khan , Johan Ugander

This paper studies the statistical theory of batch data reinforcement learning with function approximation. Consider the off-policy evaluation problem, which is to estimate the cumulative value of a new target policy from logged history…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Yaqi Duan , Mengdi Wang

Off-policy Evaluation (OPE), or offline evaluation in general, evaluates the performance of hypothetical policies leveraging only offline log data. It is particularly useful in applications where the online interaction involves high stakes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Yuta Saito , Takuma Udagawa , Haruka Kiyohara , Kazuki Mogi , Yusuke Narita , Kei Tateno

We study the problem of online learning in adversarial bandit problems under a partial observability model called off-policy feedback. In this sequential decision making problem, the learner cannot directly observe its rewards, but instead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-20 Germano Gabbianelli , Matteo Papini , Gergely Neu

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms combined with value function approximation have recently achieved impressive performance in a variety of application domains. However, the theoretical understanding of such algorithms is limited,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Botao Hao , Nevena Lazic , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Pooria Joulani , Csaba Szepesvari

Estimation of importance sampling weights for off-policy evaluation of contextual bandits often results in imbalance - a mismatch between the desired and the actual distribution of state-action pairs after weighting. In this work we present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Arjun Sondhi , David Arbour , Drew Dimmery

We develop a generic data-driven method for estimator selection in off-policy policy evaluation settings. We establish a strong performance guarantee for the method, showing that it is competitive with the oracle estimator, up to a constant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-25 Yi Su , Pavithra Srinath , Akshay Krishnamurthy

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) is considered a fundamental and challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). This paper focuses on the value estimation of a target policy based on pre-collected data generated from a possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Jiayi Wang , Zhengling Qi , Raymond K. W. Wong

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Alexander Mangulad Christgau , Anton Rask Lundborg , Niels Richard Hansen

We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Dylan J. Foster , Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan