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Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is important for closing the gap between offline training and evaluation of reinforcement learning (RL), by estimating performance and/or rank of target (evaluation) policies using offline trajectories only. It…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Qitong Gao , Ge Gao , Juncheng Dong , Vahid Tarokh , Min Chi , Miroslav Pajic

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

Given n experiment subjects with potentially heterogeneous covariates and two possible treatments, namely active treatment and control, this paper addresses the fundamental question of determining the optimal accuracy in estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-13 Jiachun Li , David Simchi-Levi , Yunxiao Zhao

Offline reinforcement learning methods hold the promise of learning policies from pre-collected datasets without the need to query the environment for new transitions. This setting is particularly well-suited for continuous control robotic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-18 Xi Chen , Ali Ghadirzadeh , Tianhe Yu , Yuan Gao , Jianhao Wang , Wenzhe Li , Bin Liang , Chelsea Finn , Chongjie Zhang

Recent literature on policy learning has primarily focused on regret bounds of the learned policy. We provide a new perspective by developing a unified semiparametric efficiency framework for policy learning, allowing for general treatments…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder , Haitian Xie

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in both contextual bandits and reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. The problem's importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Nathan Kallus , Masatoshi Uehara

We study the problem of policy evaluation and learning from batched contextual bandit data when treatments are continuous, going beyond previous work on discrete treatments. Previous work for discrete treatment/action spaces focuses on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-19 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

We study the benign overfitting theory in the prediction of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), with linear regression models. As the development of machine learning for causal inference, a wide range of large-scale models for…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-17 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Off-policy learning, referring to the procedure of policy optimization with access only to logged feedback data, has shown importance in various real-world applications, such as search engines, recommender systems, and etc. While the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Xiaoying Zhang , Junpu Chen , Hongning Wang , Hong Xie , Yang Liu , John C. S. Lui , Hang Li

We consider estimating average treatment effects (ATE) of a binary treatment in observational data when data-driven variable selection is needed to select relevant covariates from a moderately large number of available covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Ashwin N. Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad-hoc methods have been developed…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-18 Nathan Kallus , Michele Santacatterina

Off-Policy evaluation (OPE) is concerned with evaluating a new target policy using offline data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. It is critical in a number of sequential decision making problems ranging from healthcare…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Yang Xu , Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo , Lan Wang , Rui Song

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-06 Zeyu Bian , Max Biggs , Ruijiang Gao , Zhengling Qi

We present a novel off-policy loss function for learning a transition model in model-based reinforcement learning. Notably, our loss is derived from the off-policy policy evaluation objective with an emphasis on correcting distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Cameron Voloshin , Nan Jiang , Yisong Yue

We study risk-aware offline policy learning, aiming to learn a decision rule from logged data that is optimal under general risk criteria. This problem is crucial in high-stakes domains where online interaction is infeasible and adverse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-18 Yilong Wan , Yuqiang Li , Xianyi Wu

In the analysis of observational studies, inverse probability weighting (IPW) is commonly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) or the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT). The variance of the IPW ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-25 Sarah A. Reifeis , Michael G. Hudgens

Reinforcement learning (RL) has been extensively researched for enhancing human-environment interactions in various human-centric tasks, including e-learning and healthcare. Since deploying and evaluating policies online are high-stakes in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Ge Gao , Song Ju , Markel Sanz Ausin , Min Chi

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Yufan Zhang , Honglin Wen , Qiuwei Wu , Qian Ai
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