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We study a coupled driven system where two different species of particles, along with some vacancies or holes, move on a landscape whose shape fluctuates with time. The movement of the particles is guided by the local shape of the…
We propose notions of calibration for probabilistic forecasts of general multivariate quantities. Probabilistic copula calibration is a natural analogue of probabilistic calibration in the univariate setting. It can be assessed empirically…
Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation influences…
Noise and spatial degrees of freedom characterize most ecosystems. Some aspects of their influence on the coevolution of populations with cyclic interspecies competition have been demonstrated in recent experiments [e.g. B. Kerr et al.,…
Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
The ocean is filled with microscopic microalgae called phytoplankton, which together are responsible for as much photosynthesis as all plants on land combined. Our ability to predict their response to the warming ocean relies on…
We investigate how models of fluid properties and boundary conditions influence predictions of convective mixing in confined porous media, with relevance to subsurface carbon dioxide storage. Using high-resolution simulations at high…
The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these…
Building sustainable food systems that are resilient to climate change will require improved agricultural management and policy. One common practice that is well-known to benefit crop yields is crop rotation, yet there remains limited…
Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming…
The common - arguably ubiquitous - large-scale variability of optical and UV lines profiles of hot, massive stars is widely interpreted as the direct consequence of structured, variable winds. Many of the variability phenomena are observed…
In this paper, we propose a new flexible family of distributions for data that consist of three angles, two angles and one linear component, or one angle and two linear components. To achieve this, we equip the recently proposed trivariate…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
We follow the evolution of compact binaries under the coupled effect of tides and stellar winds until the onset of Roche-lobe overflow. These binaries contain a compact object (either a black-hole, a neutron-star, or a planet) and a stellar…
The evolution of a pile of granular material is investigated by molecular dynamics using a new model including nonsphericity of the particles instead of introducing static friction terms. The angle of repose of the piles as well as the…
Microbial populations generally evolve in volatile environments, under conditions fluctuating between harsh and mild, e.g. as the result of sudden changes in toxin concentration or nutrient abundance. Environmental variability thus shapes…
Wind speed statistics is generally modeled using the Weibull distribution. This distribution is convenient since it fully characterizes analytically with only two parameters (the shape and scale parameters) the shape of distribution and the…
This paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment model for power distribution networks with a focus on the influence of climate conditions and vegetation management on outage risks. Using a dataset comprising outage records,…
Regular vine distributions which constitute a flexible class of multivariate dependence models are discussed. Since multivariate copulae constructed through pair-copula decompositions were introduced to the statistical community, interest…