Related papers: A Probabilistic Framework for Estimating the Modal…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…
In this paper, we suggest a novel method for detecting mortality deceleration. We focus on the gamma-Gompertz frailty model and suggest the subtraction of a penalty in the log-likelihood function as an alternative to traditional likelihood…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…
The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individuals genomes are represented by bit-strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the…
The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole…
In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
We propose a Multi-vAlue Rule Set (MRS) model for in-hospital predicting patient mortality. Compared to rule sets built from single-valued rules, MRS adopts a more generalized form of association rules that allows multiple values in a…
The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…
Medical multimodal learning faces significant challenges with missing modalities prevalent in clinical practice. Existing approaches assume equal contribution of modality and random missing patterns, neglecting inherent uncertainty in…
How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human…
The brain-age gap is one of the most investigated risk markers for brain changes across disorders. While the field is progressing towards large-scale models, recently incorporating uncertainty estimates, no model to date provides the…
In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…
Probabilistic and set-based methods are two approaches for model invalidation, parameter and state estimation. Both classes of methods use different types of data, i.e. deterministic or probabilistic data, which allow different statements…