Related papers: A Probabilistic Framework for Estimating the Modal…
This paper descibes a new method for deriving incidence rates of a chronic disease from prevalence data. It is based on a new ordinary differential equation, which relates the change in the age-specific prevalence to the agespecific…
Mortality data are relevant to demography, public health, and actuarial science. Whilst clustering is increasingly used to explore patterns in such data, no study has reviewed its application to country-level all-cause mortality. This…
This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…
Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival…
Reliability in Neural Networks (NNs) is crucial in safety-critical applications like healthcare, and uncertainty estimation is a widely researched method to highlight the confidence of NNs in deployment. In this work, we propose an…
This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…
This paper investigates a nonlinear logistic model for age-structured population dynamics. The model incorporates interdependent fertility and mortality functions within a logistic framework, offering insights into stationary solutions and…
This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…
In most of the world, causes of death are not recorded. Verbal autopsies are structured interviews with people close to the deceased, which are used to estimate the likelihood of various causes of death. Such estimates typically make use of…
Multimodal learning combines information from multiple data modalities to improve predictive performance. However, modalities often contribute unequally and in a data dependent way, making it unclear which data modalities are genuinely…
In recurrent event studies, panel binary data arise when subjects are observed at discrete time points and only the recurrent event status within each observation window is recorded. Such data frequently occur in longitudinal studies due to…
The research on mortality is an active area of research for any country where the conclusions are driven from the provided data and conditions. The domain knowledge is an essential but not a mandatory skill (though some knowledge is still…
The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the complexity of a model and can also be viewed as the number of subpopulations. Despite its relevance, there has been limited research in this area. A novel…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
In recent we introduced, developed and established a new concept, model, methodology and principle for studying human longevity in terms of demographic basis. We call the new model the "Weon model", which is a general model modified from…
Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss…
Monitoring cause-of-death data is an important part of understanding disease burdens and effects of public health interventions. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established method for gathering information about deaths outside of hospitals by…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their…
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…