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Adaptive attacks have (rightfully) become the de facto standard for evaluating defenses to adversarial examples. We find, however, that typical adaptive evaluations are incomplete. We demonstrate that thirteen defenses recently published at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Florian Tramer , Nicholas Carlini , Wieland Brendel , Aleksander Madry

Interference alignment (IA) is known to significantly increase sum-throughput at high SNR in the presence of multiple interfering nodes, however, the reliability of IA is little known, which is the subject of this paper. We study the error…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-11-28 Baile Xie , Yang Li , Hlaing Minn , Aria Nosratinia

In this essay, we provide an overview of methodological considerations necessary to lay out the foundation for our PhD research on uncertainty and risk-aware adaptation.

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Sara Mahdavi Hezavehi , Danny Weyns , Paris Avgeriou

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Brian M Cho , Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Geoffrey S Johnson

Purpose: The 3+3 design has been shown to be less likely to achieve the objectives of phase I dose-finding trials when compared with more advanced model-based designs. One major criticism of the 3+3 design is that it is based on simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Meizi Liu , Sue-Jane Wang , Yuan Ji

We construct honest confidence regions for a Hilbert space-valued parameter in various statistical models. The confidence sets can be centered at arbitrary adaptive estimators, and have diameter which adapts optimally to a given selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 James Robins , Aad van der Vaart

This paper addresses the problem of providing runtime assurance for systems operating online under unknown and potentially time-varying data distributions. We propose Cost-Aware Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI), a novel framework that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Taoran Wu , Jingduo Pan , Luke Ong , Bai Xue

Recently, methodology was presented to facilitate the incorporation of interim analyses in stepped-wedge (SW) cluster randomised trials (CRTs). Here, we extend this previous discussion. We detail how the stopping boundaries, allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , David Robertson , James Wason , Adrian Mander

Estimating the conditional mean function is a central task in statistical learning. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for a nonparametric class of real-valued cadlag functions with bounded sectional variation (Gill et al.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Wenxin Zhang , Junming Shi , Alan Hubbard , Mark van der Laan

We study the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence intervals for the tail coefficient in the second order Pareto model, when the second order coefficient is unknown. This problem is translated into a testing problem on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-18 Alexandra Carpentier , Arlene K. H. Kim

The aim of this paper is to propose an adaptation of the well known adaptive conformal inference (ACI) algorithm to achieve finite-sample coverage guarantees in multi-step ahead time-series forecasting in the online setting. ACI dynamically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-24 Johan Hallberg Szabadváry

With an increasing number of vehicles equipped with adaptive cruise control (ACC), the impact of such vehicles on the collective dynamics of traffic flow becomes relevant. By means of simulation, we investigate the influence of variable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-09-08 Arne Kesting , Martin Treiber , Dirk Helbing

This research is motivated by the need for effective classification in ice-breaking dynamic simulations, aimed at determining the conditions under which an underwater vehicle will break through the ice. This simulation is extremely…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Tian Bai , Dianpeng Wang , Kuangqi Chen , Xu He

In clinical trials, multiple outcomes of different priorities commonly occur as the patient's response may not be adequately characterized by a single outcome. Win statistics are appealing summary measures for between-group difference at…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Ying Cui , Bo Huang , Gaohong Dong , Ryuji Uozumi , Lu Tian

Predictive modelling is important for health data analysis and data-driven clinical decision-making. However, predictive studies are challenging to design optimally by hand when tens or even hundreds of features require selection,…

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

An adaptive design adjusts dynamically as information is accrued and a consequence of applying an adaptive design is the potential for inducing small-sample bias in estimates. In psychometrics and psychophysics, a common class of studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-17 Simon Bang Kristensen , Katrine Bødkergaard , Bo Martin Bibby

The determination of the sample size required by a crossover trial typically depends on the specification of one or more variance components. Uncertainty about the value of these parameters at the design stage means that there is often a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason