Related papers: An Integrated Epidemic Simulation Workflow for Sub…
To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has vaccination, plasma therapy, herd immunity, and epidemiological interventions as few possible options. The COVID-19 vaccine development is underway and it may take a…
The outbreak of a pandemic, such as COVID-19, causes major health crises worldwide. Typical measures to contain the rapid spread usually include effective vaccination and strict interventions (Nature Human Behaviour, 2021). Motivated by…
Understanding the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of numerous studies, highlighting the significance of reliable epidemic models. Here, we introduce a novel epidemic model using a latent Hawkes process with temporal covariates for…
COVID-19 has created a pandemic around the world, paused the path of building the future, and still ongoing without having any long-term solution shortly. The time taken in vaccine distribution is too slow compared to the spread of…
Since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have applied restrictions in order to slow down its spreading. However, creating such policies is hard, especially because the government needs to trade-off the spreading of the…
Mathematical and simulation models are often used to predict the spread of a disease and estimate the impact of public health interventions, and many such models have been developed and used during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…
Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important for organizations to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aiming at…
Modeling social media public opinion evolution is essential for governance decision-making. Traditional epidemic models and rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) fail to capture the cognitive processes and adaptive behaviors of real users.…
During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has quickly become a global public health crisis unseen in recent years. It is known that the structure of the human contact network plays an important role in the spread of transmissible…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
In this study, we develop and analyze a nested multi-scale model for COVID -19 disease that integrates within-host scale and between-host scale sub-models. First, the well-posedness of the multi-scale model is discussed, followed by the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be one of the most disruptive public health emergencies in recent memory. Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown measures are some of the most common tools employed by…
Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) have been successfully employed on numerous occasions to obtain vital data-driven insights. In this paper we further substantiate the success story of GAMs,…
The COVID-19 epidemic has swept the world for over a year. However, a large number of infectious asymptomatic COVID-19 cases (\textit{ACC}s) are still making the breaking up of the transmission chains very difficult. Efforts by…
We develop a generalized group-based epidemic model (GgroupEM) framework for any compartmental epidemic model (for example; susceptible-infected-susceptible, susceptible-infected-recovered, susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered). Here, a…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
Public health officials dealing with pandemics like COVID-19 have to evaluate and prepare response plans. This planning phase requires not only looking into the spatiotemporal dynamics and impact of the pandemic using simulation models, but…