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We study the finite-time behaviour of the popular temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm when combined with tail-averaging. We derive finite time bounds on the parameter error of the tail-averaged TD iterate under a step-size choice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Gandharv Patil , Prashanth L. A. , Dheeraj Nagaraj , Doina Precup

Algorithms are given for determining $L_\infty$ isotonic regression of weighted data. For a linear order, grid in multidimensional space, or tree, of $n$ vertices, optimal algorithms are given, taking $\Theta(n)$ time. These improve upon…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-06-26 Quentin F. Stout

High-dimensional linear regression under heavy-tailed noise or outlier corruption is challenging, both computationally and statistically. Convex approaches have been proven statistically optimal but suffer from high computational costs,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-11 Yinan Shen , Jingyang Li , Jian-Feng Cai , Dong Xia

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Anja Janssen , Holger Drees

Optimization problems with an auxiliary latent variable structure in addition to the main model parameters occur frequently in computer vision and machine learning. The additional latent variables make the underlying optimization task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-13 Christopher Zach , Huu Le

This paper gives two theoretical results on estimating low-rank parameter matrices for linear models with multivariate responses. We first focus on robust parameter estimation of low-rank multi-task learning with heavy-tailed data and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-24 Kangqiang Li , Yuxuan Wang

This paper presents two algorithms, AdaOFUL and VARA, for online sequential decision-making in the presence of heavy-tailed rewards with only finite variances. For linear stochastic bandits, we address the issue of heavy-tailed rewards by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Xiang Li , Qiang Sun

We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-25 Sander Barendse

Typical contextual bandit algorithms assume that the rewards at each round lie in some fixed range $[0, R]$, and their regret scales polynomially with this reward range $R$. However, many practical scenarios naturally involve heavy-tailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-05 Chenlu Ye , Yujia Jin , Alekh Agarwal , Tong Zhang

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-16 Aditri

We study the problem of Differentially Private Stochastic Convex Optimization (DP-SCO) with heavy-tailed data. Specifically, we focus on the $\ell_1$-norm linear regression in the $\epsilon$-DP model. While most of the previous work focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Di Wang , Jinhui Xu

We develop two new estimators for a general class of stationary GARCH models with possibly heavy tailed asymmetrically distributed errors, covering processes with symmetric and asymmetric feedback like GARCH, Asymmetric GARCH, VGARCH and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-29 Jonathan B. Hill

We propose a novel class of time-varying nonparanormal graphical models, which allows us to model high dimensional heavy-tailed systems and the evolution of their latent network structures. Under this model, we develop statistical tests for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-14 Junwei Lu , Mladen Kolar , Han Liu

We consider the problem of automatic variable selection in a linear model with asymmetric or heavy-tailed errors when the number of explanatory variables diverges with the sample size. For this high-dimensional model, the penalized least…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Gabriela Ciuperca

We propose a robust estimator for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions under random right-censoring, constructed within the minimum density power divergence (MDPD) framework and based on the Nelson--Aalen estimator of the cumulative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Nour Elhouda Guesmia , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni

This paper revisits the temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm for the policy evaluation tasks in reinforcement learning. Typically, the performance of TD(0) and TD($\lambda$) is very sensitive to the choice of stepsizes. Oftentimes,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Tao Sun , Han Shen , Tianyi Chen , Dongsheng Li

Heavy-tailed high-dimensional data are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and pose great challenges to modern statistical analysis. A natural procedure to address this problem is to use penalized quantile regression with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Jianqing Fan , Yingying Fan , Emre Barut

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-10 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

Recent research has focused on $\ell_1$ penalized least squares (Lasso) estimators for high-dimensional linear regressions in which the number of covariates $p$ is considerably larger than the sample size $n$. However, few studies have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-05 Yuefeng Han , Ruey S. Tsay

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues