Related papers: Performance-Based Risk Assessment for Large-Scale …
In sampling tasks, it is common for target distributions to be known up to a normalizing constant. However, in many situations, even evaluating the unnormalized distribution can be costly or infeasible. This issue arises in scenarios such…
Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), remain the most regularly-used approach for implementing Bayesian inference. However, the computational cost of these approaches usually scales worse than linearly with the…
In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…
A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
This paper studies a non-random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, namely the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method in the context of Subset Simulation used for structural reliability analysis. The HMC method relies on a deterministic…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
A generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is unreliable for a large number of moment conditions, that is, it is comparable, or larger than the sample size. While classical GMM literature proposes several provisions to this problem,…
The widespread use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional applications has motivated research into the scalability of these algorithms with respect to the dimension of the problem. Despite this, numerous problems…
Traffic forecasting is a classical task for traffic management and it plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, since traffic data are mostly collected by traffic sensors or probe vehicles, sensor failures and…
Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…
Sampling the three-dimensional (3D) spin glass -- i.e., generating equilibrium configurations of a 3D lattice with quenched random couplings -- is widely regarded as one of the central and long-standing open problems in statistical physics.…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
Policy evaluation via Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is at the core of many MC Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms (e.g., policy gradient methods). In this context, the designer of the learning system specifies an interaction budget that…
In this paper, we consider the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for random sampling of combinatorial objects. The running time of such an algorithm depends on the total mixing time of the underlying Markov chain and is unknown in…
Subsurface remediation often involves reconstruction of contaminant release history from sparse observations of solute concentration. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the most accurate and general method for this task, is rarely used in…
The reliability of a complex industrial system can rarely be assessed analytically. As system failure is often a rare event, crude Monte-Carlo methods are prohibitively expensive from a computational point of view. In order to reduce…
It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…