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Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

A fundamental limitation of causal inference in observational studies is that perceived evidence for an effect might instead be explained by factors not accounted for in the primary analysis. Methods for assessing the sensitivity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-14 Colin B. Fogarty

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into a portion operating through a hypothesized mediator and a residual direct portion. Identification of natural direct and indirect effects typically rests on the mediator…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yuki Ohnishi , Fan Li

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-05 Kosuke Imai , Luke Keele , Teppei Yamamoto

We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect in high dimensional low sample size observational studies, where contamination and model misspecification pose serious inferential challenges. The estimator combines…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Byeonghee Lee , Sangwook Kang , Ju-Hyun Park , Saebom Jeon , Joonsung Kang

We report assumption-free bounds for any contrast between the probabilities of the potential outcome under exposure and non-exposure when the confounders are missing not at random. We assume that the missingness mechanism is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Jose M. Peña

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

In settings where interference between units is possible, we define the prevalence of indirect effects to be the number of units who are affected by the treatment of others. This quantity does not fully identify an indirect effect, but may…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 David Choi

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-24 Noam Finkelstein , Roy Adams , Suchi Saria , Ilya Shpitser

This paper provides a new approach for identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under a linear factor model that allows for multiple time-varying unobservables. Unlike the majority of the literature on…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Koki Fusejima , Takuya Ishihara

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-22 Takuya Ura

We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore,…

Many trials are designed to collect outcomes at or around pre-specified times after randomization. If there is variability in the times when participants are actually assessed, this can pose a challenge to learning the effect of treatment,…

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