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Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-09 Wenbo Guo , Sui Huang , Yunzhe Tao , Xinyu Xing , Lin Lin

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

Estimating galaxy redshifts is crucial for constraining key physical quantities like those in the equation of state of dark energy. Modern telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope, the Euclid Space Telescope, and the NASA Nancy…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-27 Alexander Kuhn , Bonnabelle Zabelle , Sara Algeri , Galin L. Jones , Claudia Scarlata

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives which remain severely under-utilised. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analysing large volumes of spectra contributes to this…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-04-06 Andrew R Casey

Cosmological parameter inference has been dominated by the Bayesian approach for the past two decades, primarily due to its computational efficiency. However, the Bayesian approach involves integration of the posterior probability and…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-10 Emil Brinch Holm , Andreas Nygaard , Jeppe Dakin , Steen Hannestad , Thomas Tram

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-12-03 Vitaly Schetinin , Jonathan Fieldsend , Derek Partridge , Wojtek Krzanowski , Richard Everson , Trevor Bailey , Adolfo Hernandez

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N-dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-08-25 Korak Kumar Ray , Anjali R. Verma , Ruben L. Gonzalez , Colin D. Kinz-Thompson

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-15 Isobel M. Romero-Shaw , Eric Thrane , Paul D. Lasky

Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-23 Mikkel N. Schmidt , Morten Mørup

We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-01-30 Martino Trassinelli

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-11 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed model can produce unreliable conclusions. This review…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , David T. Frazier

These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-01-09 Roberto Trotta

We introduce Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS), an algorithm designed to deal with parameter estimation when using contaminated data. We present the algorithm and demonstrate how it works with the help of a Gaussian…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-12-07 Martin Kunz , Renée Hlozek , Bruce A. Bassett , Mathew Smith , James Newling , Melvin Varughese

A Bayesian probability based approach is applied to the problem of detecting and parameterizing oscillations in the upper solar atmosphere for the first time. Due to its statistical origin, this method provides a mechanism for determining…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-12-18 M. S. Marsh , J. Ireland , T. Kucera

This paper proposes a hierarchical, multi-resolution framework for the identification of model parameters and their spatially variability from noisy measurements of the response or output. Such parameters are frequently encountered in…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 P. S. Koutsourelakis

Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

High fidelity radio interferometric data calibration that minimises spurious spectral structure in the calibrated data is essential in astrophysical applications, such as 21 cm cosmology, which rely on knowledge of the relative spectral…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-10-26 Peter H. Sims , Jonathan C. Pober , Jonathan L. Sievers

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse