Related papers: On testing for independence between generalized er…

Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

In this work, we consider an extension of graphical models to random graphs, trees, and other objects. To do this, many fundamental concepts for multivariate random variables (e.g., marginal variables, Gibbs distribution, Markov properties)…

Instrumental variable models allow us to identify a causal function between covariates $X$ and a response $Y$, even in the presence of unobserved confounding. Most of the existing estimators assume that the error term in the response $Y$…

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the…

This paper is concerned with the problem of conditional independence testing for discrete data. In recent years, researchers have shed new light on this fundamental problem, emphasizing finite-sample optimality. The non-asymptotic viewpoint…

We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if…

In this paper we study the asymptotics of linear regression in settings with non-Gaussian covariates where the covariates exhibit a linear dependency structure, departing from the standard assumption of independence. We model the covariates…

The standard paradigm for confirmatory clinical trials is to compare experimental treatments with a control, for example the standard of care or a placebo. However, it is not always the case that a suitable control exists. Efficient…

We obtain the posterior distribution of a random process conditioned on observing the empirical frequencies of a finite sample path. We find under a rather broad assumption on the "dependence structure" of the process, {\em c.f.}…

We characterize the identified sets of a wide range of stochastic choice models, including random utility, various models of boundedly-rational behavior, and dynamic discrete choice. In each of these settings, we show two distributions over…

We present a nonparametric Bayesian joint model for multivariate continuous and categorical variables, with the intention of developing a flexible engine for multiple imputation of missing values. The model fuses Dirichlet process mixtures…

We propose a score test for dependence predictability in conditional copulas that is robust to temporal instabilities. Our semiparametric procedure accommodates flexible dynamics in the marginal processes and remains agnostic about the…

Temporal data are increasingly prevalent in modern data science. A fundamental question is whether two time series are related or not. Existing approaches often have limitations, such as relying on parametric assumptions, detecting only…

This paper develops a variational inference framework for control of infinite dimensional stochastic systems. We employ a measure theoretic approach which relies on the generalization of Girsanov's theorem, as well as the relation between…

We propose generalizations of a number of standard network models, including the classic random graph, the configuration model, and the stochastic block model, to the case of time-varying networks. We assume that the presence and absence of…

Using cumulative residual processes, we propose joint goodness-of-fit tests for conditional means and variances functions in the context of nonlinear time series with martingale difference innovations. The main challenge comes from the fact…

Bayesian graphical modeling provides an appealing way to obtain uncertainty estimates when inferring network structures, and much recent progress has been made for Gaussian models. These models have been used extensively in applications to…

We propose new concepts in order to analyze and model the dependence structure between two time series. Our methods rely exclusively on the order structure of the data points. Hence, the methods are stable under monotone transformations of…

In this work, nonparametric log-rank-type statistical tests are introduced in order to verify homogeneity of purely discrete variables subject to arbitrary right-censoring for infinitely many categories. In particular, the Cram\'er-von…